Part of Melbourne Infrastructure Impact: This guide is part of our comprehensive Melbourne Infrastructure Impact Property Investment Guide
Melbourne Airport Rail & Expansion Property Impact 2026
Airport Rail Link (completion 2029) and third runway expansion reshape Western Melbourne. Sunshine, Essendon, Keilor gain 10-15% from direct airport-CBD rail connection. Employment precinct expansion (15,000 jobs by 2030) drives residential demand in Airport West, Tullamarine. Pre-construction premiums already 5-8%. Buy 2024-2027 for maximum upside, but manage aircraft noise risks.
Quick Answer
How to invest in Melbourne Airport infrastructure?
Target Airport Rail stations: Sunshine ($610k, +15% potential), Essendon ($1.1M, +10%), Keilor ($820k, new station). Buy within 1km of stations for transit premium. Employment precinct: Airport West ($750k), Gladstone Park ($680k) for job growth. Avoid ANEF zones (<5km airport). 2029 completion - buy 2024-2027.
Airport Rail Link Impact
Project Overview
$13B Airport Rail Link: CBD to Melbourne Airport via Sunshine. Stations: Southern Cross, Footscray, Sunshine, Keilor, Airport. Construction 2025-2029, operational 2029. Journey time: CBD-Airport 30min (vs Skybus 20-40min variable).
Airport Rail Station Suburbs
| Station | Current Median | Anticipated Gain | 2029 Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunshine | $610k | +15% | $700k |
| Essendon | $1.1M | +10% | $1.21M |
| Keilor | $820k | +12% | $920k |
| Footscray | $720k | +8% | $780k |
Best Airport Rail Suburbs
Sunshine ($610k): Highest upside +15%. Gentrification already underway. Interchange hub (Regional Rail, Airport Rail). Major redevelopment precinct. 4.8% yields.
Essendon ($1.1M): Established premium suburb gains airport accessibility. Family-friendly, top schools. Direct CityLink access. +10% by 2029 for premium market.
Keilor ($820k): New station location. Family suburb, large blocks 600-800sqm. Airport employment access. +12% potential, lower current premium priced.
Footscray ($720k): Existing station becomes interchange. Gentrification advanced. CBD proximity + Airport access. +8% incremental gain from airport link.
Investment Timing
2024-2026 (Now): Pre-construction phase. Premiums 5-8% already factored. Best entry before construction starts 2025. Maximize upside.
2025-2029: Construction period. Disruption in Sunshine, Footscray. Difficult resales, rent challenges. Hold through disruption for 2029+ gains.
2029-2032: Operational phase. Gains realized. Sell or hold for continued gentrification (Sunshine long-term play).
Airport Expansion Impact
Third Runway (2027)
Operational 2027. Passenger capacity increases 60M to 90M by 2035. Creates employment demand but also expands aircraft noise zones.
Airport Proximity Suburbs
| Suburb | Median | Distance | ANEF Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Airport West | $750k | 6km | Low |
| Tullamarine | $680k | 3km | High |
| Gladstone Park | $680k | 8km | Low |
| Keilor Park | $720k | 5km | Moderate |
Employment Precinct Growth
Airport Business Park expansion: 15,000 new jobs by 2030. Logistics, aviation, professional services. Drives residential rental demand in surrounding suburbs.
Airport West ($750k): 6km from airport, below ANEF concern. Employment access, established infrastructure. Yields 4.8%, strong rental demand from airport workers.
Gladstone Park ($680k): 8km from airport, no noise concerns. Affordable family suburb. Employment-driven demand. 5% yields.
Keilor Park ($720k): 5km from airport. Moderate ANEF zones (check specific locations). Industrial/commercial proximity. 4.6% yields.
Aircraft Noise Considerations
ANEF Zones (Australian Noise Exposure Forecast):
ANEF 20-25: Within 3-5km of runways. Residential restrictions, lower property values. Tullamarine, parts of Keilor affected. Avoid for residential investment.
ANEF 15-20: 5-7km from runways. Moderate noise, minor restrictions. Disclosure requirements impact resales. Acceptable if significantly discounted.
Below ANEF 15: 7km+ from airport. Minimal noise concerns. Standard residential investment. Airport West, Gladstone Park, Essendon safe zones.
Investment Strategies
Airport Rail Station Strategy
0-400m from station: Maximum transit premium +12-15%. Apartments preferred. Construction disruption 2025-2029 but highest upside.
400-1000m from station: Moderate premium +8-12%. Houses suitable. Walk-to-station appeal, quieter residential.
1-2km from station: Lower premium +5-8%. Suburban character. Drive/bus to station. Only if other strong features.
Employment Precinct Strategy
Target residential suburbs within 10-15min drive of Airport Business Park. Focus on rental yields (4.5-5.2%) from employment demand. Avoid ANEF zones.
Airport West: Best balance - employment access, no noise, established infrastructure. Houses $750k, apartments $480k.
Gladstone Park: Higher yields 5%, more affordable $680k. Growing families, airport workers. Limited apartments.
Property Type Selection
Near Stations: Apartments 0-400m from Sunshine, Footscray, Keilor stations. Yields 4.5-5%, strong transit demand.
Employment Suburbs: Houses in Airport West, Gladstone Park. Family rentals to airport workers. 3-4 bedroom, 4.5-5% yields.
Risks
Aircraft Noise (ANEF Zones): Properties within 5km of runways face noise restrictions. Value reductions 15-25% vs comparable suburbs. Check ANEF maps before purchase.
Completion Delays: Airport Rail targeted 2029, could slip to 2031+. Funding/political risks. Extended construction disruption impacts Sunshine, Footscray.
Construction Disruption: 2025-2029 construction reduces amenity. Sunshine, Footscray see temporary rent drops 5-10%. Difficult resales during construction.
Oversupply Risk: Developers target Sunshine station precinct. High-density apartments 2026-2030. Differentiate with quality or focus on houses.
Long Hold Required: 7-10 years to realize full gains. Through construction disruption to operational phase and maturity. Not suitable for short-term flips.
Related Articles
- Sunshine: Gentrification Investment Analysis - Airport Rail + Regional Rail hub
- Footscray: Inner West Gentrification - Airport Rail interchange investment
- Deer Park: Train Access Investment - Western corridor alternative
- Melbourne Metro & SRL Impact - Complementary rail infrastructure
Frequently Asked Questions
Completion 2029: Sunshine, Keilor, Essendon see 10-15% gains. Direct CBD-Airport rail eliminates Skybus monopoly. Stations create transit-oriented development zones. Pre-construction gains already 5-8% in Sunshine, Essendon. Buy 2024-2027 for maximum upside.
Sunshine ($610k): Highest gain potential +15%, gentrification + rail. Essendon ($1.1M): Established premium + airport access. Keilor ($820k): New station, family suburb. Footscray ($720k): Interchange hub. Buy within 1km of planned stations.
Airport Business Park expansion: 15,000 new jobs by 2030. Tullamarine, Keilor Park see commercial/industrial demand. Residential spillover to Gladstone Park ($680k), Airport West ($750k). Employment-driven rental demand 4.8-5.2% yields.
Aircraft noise within 5km - ANEF zones restrict residential. Completion delay risk (2029 target, could slip to 2031+). Construction disruption 2025-2029 impacts Sunshine, Footscray. Funding uncertainty for future stages. Requires 7-10 year hold.
Airport Rail 2029: Sunshine-Airport 10min, Airport-CBD 30min total. Creates new commuter corridor. Current: Skybus $20, 20-40min variable. Rail: Fixed 30min, $15-18. Property premium: Rail corridor +10-15% vs non-rail.
Third runway: 2025-2027 (operational 2027). Passenger capacity 60M to 90M by 2035. Airport Rail: 2025-2029 construction, operational 2029. Business park expansion: Ongoing through 2030. Staged impact - early investors (2024-2026) capture most gains.
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