RBA September 2026 Rate Decision: What a Hike to 4.60% Would Mean for Investors

Published 26 September 2026 · Information current as at 25 September 2026 (market pricing: ASX settlement 24 September; bank calls: 27 August to 21 September; housing data: August 2026) · The RBA announces its decision at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September

Key takeaways

• The decision is due at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September 2026. A hike to 4.60% is widely expected: the ASX-implied probability was 90% (24 September) and 37 of 41 economists on Finder's 25 September panel forecast it.
• The cost is quantifiable. On our model, +25bp adds $104, $156 and $208 a month to interest-only loans of $500,000, $750,000 and $1 million.
• The bigger question is what follows. Bank forecasts range from 4.60% as the peak (CBA) to 4.85% after a November hike (ANZ). The 24 September futures curve sat higher, near 5.0% by mid-2027, and did not price a full rate cut before 2028.
• The RBA expects higher rates to weigh on housing. RBA officials have said rate rises put downward pressure on house prices as part of how monetary policy works, while stating the RBA doesn't target a house-price outcome. National values were 3.6% below their March peak in August (Cotality).
• Our planning assumption: test holdings at an illustrative 7.25–7.50% investor rate, which covers the futures curve's path plus a margin.

Before and after Tuesday: the investor checklist

Before the decision

1. Check your pre-approval. Expiry periods and reassessment rules vary by lender. Ask your lender or broker when yours expires and whether a rate rise triggers a reassessment before settlement.
2. Stress-test at a higher rate. Run your holding costs at an illustrative 7.25–7.50% investor rate, or your current rate plus about 1 point if that's higher (how we built that range is in the methodology box). Our cash flow calculator does this in minutes.
3. Get fixed and variable quotes in writing. Fixed rates can move again on Tuesday afternoon, whichever way the guidance leans.
4. Prepare your shortlist. As a negotiation rule of thumb (ours, not a market statistic), listings that have been on the market for six weeks or more, have had a price cut or have been withdrawn from auction are worth approaching after a rate decision.

After the decision

• Hike with soft guidance: requalify if you're within about 5% of your borrowing limit (our rule of thumb: roughly twice the 2.1% a single rise removes in our model), then continue on plan. The next major input is the September-quarter CPI on 28 October.
• Hike with a warning of more: re-run your finance at a further +25bp before making offers, and watch the first post-hike auction weekends to see how vendors respond.
• Hold: the August CPI arrives the next morning and the quarterly CPI on 28 October feeds into the November meeting, so a hold doesn't by itself tell you rates have peaked.

If you already own investment property

• Ask your lender to review your variable rate; your broker can compare it with the rates new customers are being offered.
• Put spare cash against a non-deductible home loan first. If that's paid off, holding it in an offset account keeps it available if rates rise further.
• Base rent reviews on your local market: postcode vacancy, comparable asking rents, lease-expiry timing and the quality of your current tenant.

When is the RBA September 2026 rate decision, and will the RBA raise rates?

The cash rate is 4.35%, after rises in February (3.85%), March (4.10%) and May (4.35%) and holds in June and August (RBA cash rate target history). A rise on Tuesday would take this year's increases to a full percentage point. September is not a forecast meeting, so the only new signals will be the statement, the vote it reports and the Governor's press conference. The next full set of RBA forecasts comes with the 3 November decision.

Where forecasters stand (bank forecasts, dated)

Source: NAB (27 August); CommBank (21 September); Westpac Weekly (current as at 18 September); The Adviser (21 September) for ANZ; Finder RBA survey (25 September).

How expectations moved in six weeks

On 11 August the RBA held at 4.35% and said it would raise the cash rate further "if upside risks materialise" (statement, 11 August). The minutes, published on 25 August, recorded that "several members judged that it was quite possible that the upside risks to the inflation forecast would crystallise, requiring some further tightening" (minutes).

Since then:

• Inflation: the ABS monthly CPI for July showed headline inflation at 3.5%, but the trimmed mean was unchanged at 3.6% (ABS, 26 August). The RBA gives most weight to underlying measures like the trimmed mean when judging persistent pressure.
• Growth: June-quarter GDP rose 0.4% for the quarter and 2.1% over the year, above the RBA's 1.9% forecast (ABS, 2 September).
• Oil: the RBA's August forecasts assumed Brent crude at US$81.2 a barrel in the December quarter. Brent closed at about US$106.6 a barrel on 24 September (Trading Economics).
• RBA commentary: on 18 September Governor Bullock told the House Economics Committee that "some of these upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising" (opening statement).

The implied probability of a September rise was about 30% before the July CPI, according to CBA, and ASX data show 62% on 4 September, 86% on 18 September and 90% on 24 September (ASX RBA Rate Tracker).

The case for a hold

A hold remains possible (the ASX-implied probability was 10%), and four of Finder's 41 panellists forecast one. Their arguments:

• Unemployment rose to 4.6% in August from 4.5%, the highest since late 2021, though employment rose by 39,500 and the rise reflected higher participation (ABS Labour Force, 24 September).
• Wage growth isn't accelerating. The Wage Price Index rose 3.2% over the year to June, slightly below the RBA's 3.3% forecast (ABS, 19 August).
• Housing is already weakening. HIA's Tim Reardon told Finder that "home prices are falling, that is a symptom of the previous rate increases."

The Board has nine members and split 5–4 when it raised rates in March. Westpac expects a split vote this time. Governor Bullock said at CEDA on 22 September, "I'm not signaling anything" (transcript).

Will the RBA hike again in November 2026?

Market-implied path versus bank forecasts

Source: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026, Table 3.1; ASX RBA Rate Tracker implied yield curve, settlement 24 September 2026; CBA and ANZ notes, 21 September 2026.

Three points help read this table:

• The RBA's path was a technical assumption. The August forecasts were conditioned on "a market path for the cash rate that increases by around 10 basis points over 2026 before declining to around 4.4 per cent towards the end of the forecast period." That path was a conditioning assumption drawn from market pricing. Market pricing has since moved materially higher.
• Futures levels aren't forecasts of specific decisions. Implied rates are monthly averages and include term premia, so a 5.0% level doesn't mean markets expect exactly three more rises.
• The banks explain their lower path. CBA argues a 4.60% cash rate "would also leave monetary policy firmly restrictive", and says a September-quarter trimmed mean of 1% or more "could nevertheless put another increase on the table" (CommBank, 21 September).

What would a 4.60% cash rate cost property investors?

These are our calculations, not lender quotes. They assume a rise is passed on in full, over a 30-year remaining term.

Monthly repayments

Source: our model. Starting rates are the RBA's July 2026 averages for outstanding investor interest-only loans (6.6%) and outstanding investor principal-and-interest loans (6.4%), RBA Table F6 (published 7 September 2026, one decimal place). Interest-only change = loan × rate change ÷ 12; P&I uses the standard amortisation formula over 360 months. Your own rate and term will change the figures.

The interest-only increase doesn't depend on the starting rate: $750,000 × 0.25% ÷ 12 = $156.25. If the cash rate reached the 24 September curve's mid-2027 level of about 5.0%, the same loan would cost about $406 a month more than it does today.

After-tax cost, and when the negative gearing change applies

For a negatively geared investor, extra interest is deductible, so the net cost is lower.

Source: our model, 2026–27 marginal rates, excluding the 2% Medicare levy. Assumes the loss offsets salary income.

Negative gearing. Under the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026, rental losses on established dwellings are quarantined from 1 July 2027 unless the ownership interest was acquired before 7:30pm (ACT legal time) on 12 May 2026. For a purchase by contract, the interest counts from when the contract was entered into. From 1 July 2027 those losses can't be deducted against salary or wages. So:

• Until 30 June 2027, the after-tax figures above apply to negatively geared investors generally.
• From 1 July 2027, if an affected established dwelling runs at a net loss, the owner carries the full pre-tax increase from their own cash flow. The loss is carried forward and can offset income from quarantined dwellings, net income from non-quarantined residential property and residential capital gains.
• Dwellings acquired before the cut-off are grandfathered, eligible new dwellings are exempt, and complying superannuation entities are excluded from the restriction.

The capital gains tax changes in the same Act work through a separate mechanism and aren't covered here; see our CGT countdown guide. Our negative gearing transition plan covers quarantining in detail.

Borrowing capacity (illustrative)

Source: our model. Assumes the monthly surplus available for repayments stays at the level that supports $750,000 at 9.40% (about $6,250), assessed as a 30-year P&I loan. The starting rate is the RBA's July 2026 average for new investor variable loans (6.4%, Table F6). This is an illustration, not an estimate for any individual borrower.

APRA expects lenders to assess new loans at an interest rate at least 3.0 percentage points above the loan product rate. Lenders also apply their own floor rates, living-expense assumptions and rental-income discounts, so results differ between lenders. Borrowing capacity is also only one constraint: your deposit or equity sets the loan-to-value ratio, which affects lenders' mortgage insurance and pricing. APRA's debt-to-income settings limit each bank to 20% of new investor lending at six times income or more, applied across the bank's lending rather than to individual borrowers. Our borrowing capacity guide and borrowing capacity calculator show how lenders differ.

What does a rate rise mean for property prices and rents?

At the AFR Property Summit on 8 September, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the three rises earlier this year "will put some downward pressure on house prices and will slow things down a bit in the housing sector more broadly. That is part of what we're trying to achieve through transmission" (transcript). Governor Bullock told Parliament on 18 September that "monetary policy does not target housing prices."

Prices. Cotality's Home Value Index fell 0.9% in August, a fifth consecutive monthly fall, leaving national values 3.6% below the March peak and 2.7% higher than a year earlier. Sydney fell 1.4% for the month and was 7.1% below its February peak (Cotality HVI, 1 September). The capitals are moving differently: over the year to August, Sydney (−4.6%) and Melbourne (−4.7%) fell while Perth (+15.6%), Darwin (+14.6%) and Brisbane (+10.8%) were still well up. For cash-flow investors, listings have built fastest in the markets that grew most: total listings in the 28 days to 20 September were 57.7% higher than a year earlier in Perth and 55.2% higher in Brisbane, against 11.3% in Sydney (Cotality Property Market Indicator Summary, week ending 20 September). Cotality's daily index for the five largest capitals was down about 1.0% for September to the 25th (our calculation from Cotality's published daily values; provisional until the September index, expected on 1 October).

Auctions. Cotality's final clearance rate was 49.1% for the week ending 20 September, and 15 of the past 17 weeks finished below 50% (Cotality, 23 September).

The RBA's own reading of the causes. The August minutes attributed the price decline to "the combined effect of increases in the cash rate, tax changes announced in the Federal Budget and weaker sentiment", with the relative importance of each "difficult to discern precisely."

History. In 2023 the RBA raised rates five times, yet national values rose over the year as tight rental markets and migration outweighed the rate effect. This rise would come five months into a decline, with investor demand also affected by the tax changes. After the November 2010 and November 2023 peaks, the first cut came 12 and 15 months later (RBA cash rate history).

Rents. Hunter was asked on 9Now's "The Pay Off" podcast (recorded 7 September, published 22 September) whether rents follow mortgage rates. She said rents are set by "the local market... it's not because of interest rates" (transcript). Two datasets describe the rental market:

• SQM Research (advertised rents and vacancy): national vacancy was 1.3% in August for a third month, and national advertised rents were flat over the month (our SQM August analysis).
• Cotality (rent index and yields): Cotality's rent index rose 5.7% over the year to August, and its national gross rental yield was 3.79%, the highest since September 2019.

Supply. Research group FoundIt's September report, as reported by The Daily Telegraph on 20 September, flagged 56 areas where listings exceed five months of demand, concentrated in former boom corridors of south-east Queensland, Perth and western Sydney.

Should you fix your rate before the RBA meeting?

Fixed rates price the expected path of the cash rate, which is why they moved first. CBA's lowest owner-occupier fixed rates rose on 22 September: one year to 6.78%, two years to 6.82%, three and four years to 6.89%, and five years to 6.94%. Canstar counted 16 lenders that had raised at least one fixed rate in September (Canstar, 22 September). In July, RBA data showed new investor fixed loans of up to three years averaging 6.4%, level with new investor variable loans. Investor loans typically price about 0.2–0.3 points above the owner-occupier equivalent (RBA F6, July 2026: outstanding investor variable 6.5% against owner-occupier variable 6.2%).

• If the banks are right (a 4.60% peak, cuts from late 2027): a two-year fix at today's pricing would likely cost more than staying variable.
• If the futures curve is right: today's fixed rates are close to where variable rates would land.
• If you couldn't absorb a further rise: fixing part of the loan limits the risk while keeping an offset on the rest.

Governor Bullock noted at CEDA that the share of new lending at fixed rates has fallen from about 40% at its peak to around 5%. For how the last cycle played out, see our analysis of the August 2026 hold and the May 2026 rise to 4.35%. Our fixed vs variable investment loan guide and mortgage stress guide cover split loans, repricing and offsets.

What to watch in Tuesday's statement

1. The vote. The statement reports whether the decision was unanimous.
2. The guidance. Language implying further tightening would likely firm November pricing; describing policy as sufficiently restrictive would likely pull the curve back toward the banks.
3. The press conference. Whether the Governor signals a pause or further action is likely to move fixed rates quickly.

Source: ABS release calendar; RBA meeting schedule; CBA, 21 September 2026.

Three scenarios for Tuesday

Source: our analysis. Only the hold probability is market-implied (ASX, 24 September); the other two columns are illustrative paths consistent with bank and market views, not assigned probabilities.

Illustrative investor profiles

The people, ages, incomes and loan balances below are hypothetical, built to illustrate common situations.

Profile 1: a pre-approved first investor. Pre-approval of $680,000, assessed in July. On our capacity model a 25 basis point rise could reduce the approved amount to about $665,000 at reassessment. Buying below the limit leaves room for that. Buying an established dwelling now means the property falls under the 2027 negative gearing rules, so model holding costs before tax from 2027–28.

Profile 2: an equity-rich portfolio owner. Three grandfathered properties and $700,000 of usable equity. With finance still serviceable, this investor has more capacity to negotiate as vendors respond to higher rates. Grandfathered losses still offset salary. For a further purchase, new dwellings keep full negative gearing; an established purchase needs a yield that works without the deduction.

Profile 3: a cash-flow investor. Looking for neutral cash flow in regional markets and the mid-sized capitals. Fewer properties break even at 6.65–6.9%, but yields have risen as prices fell. Our Top 10 Suburbs September 2026 edition screens for low vacancy and higher yields.

Profile 4: a stretched variable-rate owner. A $620,000 interest-only loan at 6.6%. A 25 basis point rise adds about $129 a month ($620,000 × 0.25% ÷ 12); if the cash rate reached the curve's mid-2027 level of about 5.0%, the total increase would be about $336 a month. Options to review before fixing: a rate review with the lender, offset use and the rent against local comparables. If the interest-only period ends within a year, the move to P&I will increase repayments more than the rate rise.

Profile 5: an SMSF trustee. Since 10 August 2026, under Schedule 5 of the Act, a new limited recourse borrowing arrangement over real property must be for business real property, so any residential purchase would be made without borrowing. Arrangements entered into before 10 August, and refinancing of them, aren't affected. Complying superannuation entities are excluded from the new negative gearing restriction. Separately, complying super funds apply a one-third CGT discount under the existing superannuation rules. For this trustee the main effect of a rise is on the returns from alternatives such as term deposits. Our SMSF residential property guide covers the options.

What would change our view, and what could go wrong?

Signals that 4.60% may be the peak

• The statement softens its tightening language, or the vote is split.
• The September-quarter trimmed mean (28 October) is 0.8% or less for the quarter, which on our reading is consistent with the RBA's forecast of 3.3% a year by December.
• Unemployment rises toward 5%.
• Brent crude falls back toward the RBA's assumed US$81.2 for the December quarter.

Signals for the higher path

• A unanimous vote with guidance that more may be needed.
• A quarterly trimmed mean of 1% or more, which CBA says could put another increase on the table.
• Oil stays above US$100 and firms keep passing on costs.

Risks

• Inflation doesn't ease. If the September-quarter CPI confirms the upside risks, the risk of another rise increases. Mitigation: cash buffers and conservative leverage.
• The labour market weakens faster. Job losses would raise tenant arrears and forced sales, even if rate cuts came earlier. Mitigation: landlord insurance and tenant quality.
• Prices fall further than expected. Hunter said a sustained 10% fall with no recovery for one to two years "would be quite surprising" in historical context. A materially weaker housing, labour or inflation backdrop could strengthen the case for eventual easing, but that isn't a forecast. Mitigation: avoid loan-to-value ratios that a further 10% fall would push into negative equity.
• Rates and tax combine for recent buyers. An investor who bought an established dwelling after 12 May 2026 on a negatively geared basis faces higher rates now and quarantined losses from July 2027. Mitigation: model holding costs before tax from 2027–28.

The Bottom Line

A 25 basis point rise to 4.60% is widely expected on Tuesday. All four major banks forecast it and ASX futures implied a 90% probability on 24 September. On our model it adds $156 a month to a $750,000 interest-only loan and lowers illustrative borrowing capacity by about 2%.

The bigger unknown is the path after Tuesday. Most banks see 4.60% as the peak with cuts from late 2027; the 24 September futures curve sat near 5.0% by mid-2027 and did not price a full rate cut before 2028. The gap is worth about $250 a month on the same loan. For investors who bought established property after 12 May 2026, higher rates arrive alongside the July 2027 negative gearing change.

Watch the vote and guidance on Tuesday, the September-quarter CPI on 28 October, and Cotality's monthly index. We'll publish our analysis of the decision after Tuesday.