Home Value Index Tracker

The Latest Numbers (August 2026 HVI)

National: −0.9% for the month · –3.1% for the quarter · −3.6% from the March 2026 peak · median $912,885. The combined capitals fell 1.1% (median $990,394) and the combined regionals 0.4% (median $764,020) — regional SA was the only rest-of-state market to avoid a decline over the past three months. Houses are falling faster than units nationally (–1.1% vs –0.5% in August), and the gap between the upper and lower quartiles is narrowing: premium markets still lead the falls, but lower-priced housing is no longer insulated.

Source: Cotality Home Value Index, August 2026 (released 1 September 2026). *First prints are provisional and subject to revision — this release revised July's national fall from −0.7% to −1.2%, including Perth from +0.1% to −1.3% and Brisbane from −0.6% to −1.2%.

Rents and yields: the national gross rental yield reached 3.79% in August — its highest since September 2019 (combined capitals 3.6%, regionals 4.3%), with rents up 5.7% over the year (roughly $38 a week on the national median) against SQM's national vacancy rate of 1.3% in July — values falling while rents rise keeps expanding yields every month. Cross-check rental conditions on our Vacancy Rate Tracker.

Market activity: this is a demand-side downturn — Cotality's quarterly estimate of home sales is running 15.5% below the same time last year (11.5% below the five-year average), and because homes are taking longer to sell, total capital-city listings have swelled to 24% above year-ago levels even though new listings are 6% lower — our spring 2026 listings analysis sets out that two-speed picture city by city. Longer selling times, wider vendor discounts and persistently sub-50% auction clearances all point to a buyer's market; in Tim Lawless's words, buyers are lacking the confidence to transact. The cash rate is held at 4.35%, with the hot July CPI reviving hike risk into the 28–29 September RBA meeting.

The Trend

Sydney's index peaked in February 2026 and is already 7.1% below that peak — a faster pace of decline than the equivalent stage of its 2022–23 correction (–6.6%). Melbourne sits 6.8% below its March 2022 all-time high, which it has never retaken. Both are deep in annual decline (Sydney –4.6%, Melbourne –4.7%), Canberra has joined them (–0.4%), and in August every capital fell except Darwin — the only capital still at peak.

Cross-Check: Cotality vs PropTrack

August delivered full directional agreement: both indices have every capital falling except Darwin. The argument is now purely about speed — Cotality printed –0.9% nationally against PropTrack's –0.2%, with Cotality's falls running three to four times larger in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, while Adelaide is the one market where the two nearly agree (–0.8% vs –0.9%). July's Perth sign dispute resolved decisively downward: Cotality's +0.1% first print was revised to –1.3%. That revision pattern is why we treat first prints as provisional. See our PropTrack Home Price Index Tracker for the other side of the pair.

Housing Chart Pack Highlights (August 2026 Edition, July Data)

Cotality's monthly Chart Pack puts the HVI price series in context — market size, listings, credit and rentals. The headline figures from the latest pack (full analysis in our August chart pack deep-dive):

• Chart of the Month is a downturn-scenario map: a 20% fall from cyclical peaks would rewind Melbourne to pre-pandemic levels but Perth only to April 2025; Sydney and Melbourne are already 5%+ below their peaks.
• Total residential market value $12.4 trillion across 11.5 million dwellings; housing holds 56.8% of household wealth against $2.6 trillion in mortgage debt.
• Lower-quartile values +10.8% over the year vs +0.7% for the upper quartile — the affordability split now runs through every capital's stratified index.
• National gross rental yield 3.72%, the highest since April 2023 (capitals 3.6%, regionals 4.2%); rents +5.9% against 3.3% wage growth.
• Investor share of new lending 40.3% in the March quarter — the highest since September 2016, and the last full quarter before the Budget reforms; Cotality expects it to fall.
• Capitals days-on-market 33 days (26 a year ago), vendor discounts 3.9%, clearance below 50% since late May — buyer leverage at cycle highs.
• Revision note: the pack's figures are July-vintage and have since been revised — the table above carries the August-release numbers. The September chart pack (August data) lands mid-month; we update this section then.

What This Means for Investors — Our Analysis

1. The downturn is now general, not selective. Five straight monthly falls, 93% of capital-city suburbs declining, and an index 3.6% below peak — yet still no forced-selling signal, which keeps this a grind rather than a crash. The 2022–23 comparator (–9.1% peak-to-trough, as reported at the time) remains the reference case, and Sydney is already falling faster than it did then.
2. Buyer leverage is at cycle highs everywhere except Darwin. Sales are running 15.5% below last year while capital-city stock sits 24% above it — sellers are competing for a shrinking buyer pool. Anchor offers to recent comparable sales, not asking prices or annual growth figures.
3. Yields keep expanding — now at six-year highs. The national gross yield hit 3.79% in August, its best since September 2019, with rents up 5.7% for the year against falling values. For yield-led and SMSF buyers this is a materially better entry than the growth-at-any-yield market of 2024–25 — and with negative gearing changes from July 2027, Lawless expects investors to weight yield more heavily still. Model a specific property with our rental yield calculator. Our analysis of rental yields rising as house prices fall separates the capitals where rents are driving the expansion from those where price falls are.
4. The boom capitals have fully turned. Brisbane (–1.0%), Adelaide and Perth (both –0.8%) posted a second consecutive fall of close to 1% in August (Adelaide's steepest of the cycle; Brisbane and Perth eased only slightly from July's revised –1.2% and –1.3%), and July's Perth read was revised from +0.1% to –1.3%. Their double-digit annual figures describe growth that has already happened — an offer priced off the annual column pays for momentum that no longer exists.
5. The RBA is the master variable, and the risk has flipped hawkish. This is a borrowing-capacity squeeze at a held-restrictive 4.35% — and after the hot July CPI, a growing number of economists expect the cash rate could rise again, a scenario Cotality itself flags as a downside risk for housing demand. The 28–29 September meeting is the near-term branch point; another hike would extend and deepen the grind.

Monthly Editions — Full Analysis Archive

Related: Buy vs rent — the Cotality data that surprises everyone.

Methodology

The Bottom Line