Home Value Index Tracker

The Latest Numbers (September 2026 HVI)

National: −1.1% for the month · –3.7% for the quarter · 0.0% for the year · −5.2% from the March 2026 peak · median $899,236. The combined capitals fell 1.2% (median $973,525; 6.4% below their March peak) and the combined regionals 0.7% (median $758,931; 2.2% below their May peak), with 71% of regional SA3 markets falling over the month. Houses again fell faster than units nationally (–1.2% vs –0.8% in September). Our September 2026 HVI analysis covers the revisions, the regional split and the investor implications in full.

Source: Cotality Home Value Index, September 2026 (released 1 October 2026). *First prints are provisional and subject to revision — this release revised August's national fall from −0.9% to −1.2%, including Perth from −0.8% to −1.7%, Brisbane from −1.0% to −1.6% and Darwin from +0.6% to −0.7%.

Rents and yields: the national gross rental yield reached 3.85% in September, its highest since August 2019 (combined capitals 3.7%, regionals 4.3%). Rents rose 0.3% in the month, the smallest rise since May 2025, and 5.5% over the year. Cotality's own vacancy measure rose to 2.0% (from a 1.5% low in February), while SQM's series, a different method, had the national rate at 1.3% in August. Gross yield is not cash flow: Cotality notes that “opportunities for neutral to positive cash flow remain low” once interest, insurance, maintenance and strata are counted. Cross-check rental conditions on our Vacancy Rate Tracker.

Market activity: the evidence points to weak demand. Cotality's three-month estimate of home sales is 19.1% below a year earlier (13.3% below the five-year average; Brisbane –27.2%, Sydney –26.5%, Perth –24.2%). Capital-city new listings are 9.2% lower than a year ago, yet total inventory is 23.1% higher because homes are taking a median 39 days to sell against 23 a year ago; our spring 2026 listings analysis sets out the city-by-city picture. The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth rise of 2026, and the major banks pass it on from 9 October. The next decision is on 3 November; our house price forecast scorecard for 2026–2027 compares what the banks expect from here.

The Trend

Sydney's index peaked in February 2026 and is now 8.6% below that peak, which Cotality describes as “marginally deeper than the equivalent stage of the 2022-23 downturn”. Melbourne is 7.2% below its November 2025 cyclical high and 7.5% below its March 2022 record, which it has never retaken. Both are in annual decline (Sydney –7.0%, Melbourne –6.2%), as is Canberra (–1.6%). The mid-sized capitals have turned: Brisbane is 5.4% below its May peak, Perth 6.0% below its April peak and Adelaide 2.9% below its May peak. Darwin, the last capital to peak (July), is 0.2% below it.

Cross-Check: Cotality vs PropTrack

September again brought agreement on direction and disagreement on speed. Cotality printed –1.1% nationally against PropTrack's –0.2%, and the gap on the fall to date has widened: Cotality has national values 5.2% below the March peak, PropTrack 3.3%. Over twelve months the two are almost identical (0.0% and +0.1%), so they differ mainly on how fast values have fallen since March. Among the large capitals they are closest in Melbourne (–0.7% vs –0.2%) and furthest apart in Brisbane (–1.5% vs –0.2%), and both have Darwin rising. The two indices use different models and data, and Cotality's first prints have been revised down in each recent release, which is why we treat first prints as provisional. See our PropTrack Home Price Index Tracker for the other side of the pair.

Housing Chart Pack Highlights (October 2026 Edition, September Data)

Cotality's monthly Chart Pack puts the HVI price series in context — market size, listings, selling conditions and rentals. The headline figures from the October 2026 pack, released 15 October with September data and listings to 11 October (the August edition is analysed in full in our August chart pack deep-dive):

• Spring has stalled. An estimated 39,747 homes sold in September, 20.9% fewer than a year earlier; annual sales are down 9.1% across the capitals and 1.6% in the regions. The median time to sell is 41 days nationally (26 a year ago) and 39 days in the capitals (23), the longest in five years; Perth is fastest at 26 days and Canberra slowest at 50. Cotality's Tim Lawless: “School holidays and football finals can disrupt the market during September, but they don't explain the extent of the slowdown.”
• Buyer leverage at a five-year high. Capital-city vendors are discounting a median 4.4% from asking price to contract (regions 3.9%), and the four-week clearance average is 48.3% against 64.4% in late February. Cotality estimates the four 2026 rate rises have cut a median-income household's borrowing capacity by about $90,000 (9%).
• Stock is accumulating, not arriving. New listings of 36,440 in the four weeks to 11 October are 7.9% below a year ago and 11.9% below the five-year average, yet total listings are 145,573, up 19.1% and 2.7% above average. Brisbane's total listings are up 60.4% and Perth's 64.7% over the year, with selling times out from 17 to 38 days and 11 to 26 days respectively.
• Values by city. National values fell 3.7% over the September quarter: combined capitals −4.3%, regions −1.9%. Sydney's −4.9% quarter leaves it 8.6% below its February peak; Brisbane and Perth each fell 4.7% for the quarter while still up 5.9% and 10.1% over the year; Melbourne −3.4%; Darwin (+0.5%) was the only riser.
• Rents are slowing as yields rise. National rents rose 0.5% over the quarter, the smallest rise since December 2024, and 5.5% over the year; gross yields reached 3.85%, the highest since August 2019. Cotality's own vacancy measure is 2.0% (1.5% in February), the highest since January 2025 but below the pre-COVID decade average of 3.3%.
• Chart of the Month is supply. Cotality puts future need at about 1.4 million additional homes by 2035 and warns that construction constraints, especially in Melbourne, may stop supply keeping pace. Residential real estate is now valued at $12.1 trillion (from $12.2 trillion) across 11.5 million dwellings.
• Vintage note: this pack's price figures are the same September release as the table above. The credit-mix pages (investor share, interest-only, loan-risk shares) are in the full PDF, which we transcribe when it is available; APRA's June-quarter data put investors at 35.6% of new lending and interest-only at 23.5%. The November chart pack (October data) lands mid-November; we update this section then.

What This Means for Investors — Our Analysis

1. The downturn is broad. Six straight monthly falls, 97% of capital-city suburbs down over three months and an index 5.2% below peak. The RBA's October Financial Stability Review found under 1% of borrowers in negative equity and most with sizeable buffers, which suggests limited forced selling so far; the data are consistent with weak demand rather than distress. The 2022–23 comparator (–9.1% as first published) remains the reference case, and Sydney is already slightly deeper than at the same stage then.
2. Buyers have more room to negotiate. Sales are 19.1% below a year ago while capital-city inventory is 23.1% above it and homes take a median 39 days to sell. Anchor offers to recent comparable sales, not asking prices or annual growth figures.
3. Gross yields keep rising, to a seven-year high. The national gross yield reached 3.85% in September, its highest since August 2019, from falling values and rents still up 5.5% over the year. For yield-led and SMSF buyers the entry yield is better than in 2024–25, but most capital-city segments still don't cover interest on a leveraged purchase after the hike, so test cash flow, not just yield. Model a specific property with our rental yield calculator. Our analysis of rental yields rising as house prices fall separates the capitals where rents are driving the expansion from those where price falls are.
4. The boom capitals are now falling fastest. Brisbane (–1.5%), Adelaide (–1.3%) and Perth (–1.2%) all fell more than Melbourne (–0.7%) in September, and August was revised to –1.6% in Brisbane and –1.7% in Perth. Their annual figures (+5.9% to +10.1%) describe growth that has already happened; an offer priced off the annual column pays for momentum that has gone.
5. Interest rates are the main variable. On 29 September the RBA raised the cash rate to 4.60%, the highest since late 2011, and Cotality calls it an addition to “a formidable set of demand-side headwinds”. Westpac and ANZ expect another rise to 4.85% on 3 November; CBA, NAB and AMP expect a hold. Markets priced roughly a 20% chance of a November rise after the August CPI (30 September, a dated snapshot). The September CPI on 28 October comes first.

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Related: Buy vs rent — the Cotality data that surprises everyone.

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