Cotality Chart Pack August 2026: What a 5%, 10% or 20% Fall Actually Looks Like
Cotality's August chart pack opens with downturn scenarios — the data house that spent two years publishing record highs is now publishing fall maps. Sydney and Melbourne are already 5%+ below peak, buyer leverage is at cycle highs, yields hit a three-year high, and investors reached a decade-high 40.3% of new lending in the last quarter before the reforms. Section-by-section investor analysis.
This is one edition in a monthly series. The latest Cotality values, rents, yields and chart-pack highlights are always on the Home Value Index Tracker →
Direct answer
Cotality's August chart pack (July data) shows an established, two-speed downturn: combined capitals fell 2.5% over the quarter while regionals fell just 0.1%, and lower-quartile values (+10.8% annually) are massively outperforming the upper quartile (+0.7%). The pack's Chart of the Month maps downturn scenarios — a 20% fall would take Melbourne back to pre-pandemic levels but Perth only to April 2025. Buyer leverage is at its strongest readings of this cycle: capitals days-on-market at 33 (from 26), vendor discounts at 3.9%, clearance below 50% since late May. Meanwhile the rental side tightened further — gross yields hit 3.72% nationally, the highest since April 2023 — and investors reached 40.3% of new lending, the highest share since September 2016, in the last quarter before the Federal Budget reforms bite.
This is a short-form, section-by-section read of the August pack, continuing our chart pack series (previous edition: May 2026 — the June and July editions were absorbed into our monthly HVI coverage). The July HVI deep-dive carries the full price analysis this pack contextualises.
1. Chart of the Month: Pricing the Downside, City by City
Direct answer
Cotality's Chart of the Month maps what 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% falls from each city's cyclical peak would mean: Sydney and Melbourne are already more than 5% below their peaks, while a severe 20% fall would rewind Perth only to April 2025 levels but Melbourne to pre-pandemic prices.
Cotality opened this edition with downturn scenarios — what 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% declines from each city's cyclical peak would mean. That choice of chart is itself the message. The data house that spent two years publishing record highs is now publishing fall maps.
The scenarios reward reading closely, because the same percentage fall means completely different things by city:
| City | Cyclical peak (scenario reference) | 20% fall returns values to | Distance from record high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $1.3m, Jan 2026 | May 2021 levels | −5.3% (record = Jan 2026 peak) |
| Melbourne | $840K, Nov 2025 | Jun 2017 levels (pre-pandemic) | −5.5% from Mar 2022 record; “over 5% down” from recent peak |
| Brisbane | $1.1m, May 2026 | Aug 2024 levels | −0.7% (record = May 2026 peak) |
| Adelaide | $950K, May 2026 | Apr 2024 levels | −0.4% (record = May 2026 peak) |
| Perth | $1m, May 2026 | Apr 2025 levels | −0.4% (record = May 2026 peak) |
Source: Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack, August 2026 — decline scenarios measured from each city's cyclical peak. For every city except Melbourne the record high and the cyclical peak are the same event; Melbourne's record remains March 2022, with the November 2025 cyclical peak the scenarios' reference point.
How Far Each Capital Sits Below Its Record High — July 2026
Distance from each city's record-high dwelling value. Sydney and Melbourne are already through the pack's first (–5%) scenario line; Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are barely off May 2026 peaks, and Darwin is still setting records. Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra records date from 2022 — everywhere else, the record is this cycle's peak.
Source: Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack, August 2026 edition (July 2026 data).
Investor takeaway
The downside asymmetry is the point. Perth's boom was so steep that even a severe 20% correction only rewinds it fifteen months; Melbourne's growth has been so thin that a 20% fall erases nearly a decade. Our view: that rewind distance protects the earlier buyer, not today's entrant — a peak-price Perth purchase loses the same 20% either way, and Perth's own sales volumes (–14.8%) show the marginal buyer already stepping back. Read the scenarios as an argument for the fast-growth affordable capitals at the right entry price, not as evidence they cannot fall.
Sydney and Melbourne are already through the first scenario line: both sit more than 5% below their peaks. Our analysis: NAB's August forecast (capitals –5% through 2026, Sydney –10%) essentially assumes Sydney and Melbourne complete the second line while the mid-sized capitals hold near the first. Nothing in this pack contradicts that path — for balance, KPMG's August outlook is milder (national houses –1.1% for 2026, units still rising), so the forecaster range is wide. Both calls as published 4–8 August 2026.
2. Values: The Quarter the Chart Pack's Split Went Official
Direct answer
National dwelling values fell 1.9% over the three months to July while remaining 5.3% higher over the year — and the fall is not evenly shared: combined capitals dropped 2.5% against just 0.1% for the regions, and lower-quartile values are outperforming the upper quartile in every major capital.
- National: –1.9% for the quarter, +5.3% for the year (the annual pace was 9.9% as recently as the March pack; the July HVI deep-dive covers the monthly detail).
- Combined capitals: –2.5% quarterly, +3.9% annually. Sydney –4.0% and Melbourne –3.4% led the quarterly falls; Perth still holds +20.5% annually, Brisbane +14.8%, Adelaide +10.5%.
- Combined regionals: –0.1% quarterly, +9.7% annually — regional SA and WA are both still rising at +2.1% for the quarter while every big-five capital except Adelaide (+0.1%) falls. Among the smaller capitals, Darwin (+2.4% quarterly, at record highs) and Hobart (+1.4%) are still climbing; Canberra (–2.1% quarterly, 4.2% below its 2022 record) is quietly the second-weakest capital in the country.
12-Month Change in Dwelling Values — Capitals, Regions and Combined Markets
Annual growth to July 2026. Combined regionals (+9.7%, amber) are growing at two and a half times the pace of the combined capitals (+3.9%) — and regional WA, TAS, QLD and SA (teal) all out-grew every capital except Perth, Darwin and Brisbane.
Source: Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack, August 2026 edition (July 2026 data).
The stratified index is the thesis chart. Over the twelve months, national lower-quartile values rose 10.8% against 0.7% for the upper quartile. Quarterly and by city, the lowest 25% of values outperformed the top 25% everywhere that matters: Sydney –1.4% vs –5.2%, Melbourne –1.2% vs –4.6%, Brisbane +0.5% vs –1.2%, Adelaide +0.4% vs +0.1%, Perth +0.5% vs –0.8%.
The Affordability Split: Cheapest 25% vs Most Expensive 25% — Quarterly Change to July 2026
Cotality's stratified hedonic index, three months to July. The lowest-value quartile outperformed the highest in every capital: borrowing capacity is setting price discovery, and demand is crowding into the affordable tier. Nationally, lower-quartile values are +10.8% over the year against +0.7% for the upper quartile.
Source: Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack, August 2026 edition (July 2026 data). Stratified hedonic dwellings index, quarterly change.
Important
This is the mechanism behind every list this site has published since April: borrowing capacity sets prices, so when rates rise, the expensive end reprices first and hardest while demand crowds into the affordable tier. The August chart pack is the cleanest single-source confirmation of that mechanism Cotality has printed.
3. Buyer Leverage: Every Negotiation Metric Moved the Buyer's Way
Direct answer
Homes now take a median 35 days to sell nationally (33 in the capitals, up from 26 a year ago), vendors are discounting a median 3.9% in the capitals (from 3.2%), auction clearance has held below 50% since late May (June low: 42.3%), and capital-city sales volumes are down 3.5% year-on-year. Every dial that measures the balance of power between buyer and seller moved toward the buyer.
| Metric | Now (3m to July) | A year ago | Investor read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Days on market (capitals) | 33 days | 26 days | Slowest since the rate-hike trough; Perth still fastest at 17 |
| Vendor discount (capitals) | −3.9% | −3.2% | ≈$39K total room on a $1m dwelling; Sydney −4.2% ≈ $52K |
| Auction clearance (4-wk avg) | Below 50% since late May | ~72% same weekend | June low 42.3%; Feb peak ~66% |
| Sales volumes (capitals, y/y) | −3.5% | — | Perth −14.8%, the sharpest pullback; regionals +4.2% |
Source: Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack, August 2026. Dollar equivalents are our arithmetic on the stated discount rates.
The details investors can actually use:
- Days on market, capitals: 33 (26 a year ago). Perth remains the outlier at 17 days — still the fastest-selling capital even as its index flattens. Adelaide 31, Brisbane 31, Sydney 41, Melbourne 39.
- Vendor discounting, capitals: 3.9% (from 3.2% a year ago). On a $1m capital-city dwelling that is roughly $39,000 of total negotiating room — about $7,000 more of it than the same negotiation carried a year ago, and on Sydney's $1.24m median (discounting at 4.2%, the widest of the capitals) the total is around $52,000 — all before any peak-to-trough price adjustment.
- Clearance: below 50% since the last week of May on Cotality's weighted final count, lifting off the 42.3% June low but nowhere near the ~66% of February. Cotality notes auction outcomes and value trends have shown a strong historical correlation, “implying further downside pressure on home values.”
- Sales: capitals –3.5% y/y, regionals +4.2%. Perth sales fell 14.8% — the sharpest demand pullback in the country, worth knowing before paying trailing-growth prices in WA. Growth was driven by regional Victoria (+18.4%), regional NSW (+11.9%) and the regional NT (+20.1%), Cotality's own callouts: the buyer migration to affordable markets is visible in transaction counts, not just prices.
4. Listings: The Supply Story Is Quieter Than the Headlines
Direct answer
Total listings are up 14.9% year-on-year but sit just 0.1% above the five-year average, and new listings are running 7.1% below average — the stock build reflects slow buyer absorption, not a wave of sellers.
Total listings (135,008 nationally, four weeks to 9 August) are up 14.9% on a year ago — but that puts them just 0.1% above the five-year average. More telling: new listings are running 7.1% below the five-year average and have eased since March. Cotality's conclusion is explicit: the stock build is “attributable to easing buyer demand rather than a flurry of new listings.”
Balanced view
This cuts both ways for the downturn thesis. No panic-selling wave means no crash mechanics — the market is slowing because buyers stepped back, not because sellers rushed in, and total capital-city listings up 22.6% y/y is absorption failure, not distress. But it also means the spring test is still ahead: if September–November's usual listing surge arrives into sub-50% clearance, the stock overhang compounds quickly. Watch new-listing flows from early September.
5. Rental Market: The Constant, Again
Direct answer
Rents grew 5.9% nationally for the year to July — identical across capitals and regionals, still nearly twice wage growth (3.3%) — and national gross yields reached 3.72%, the highest since April 2023, as prices fell against rising rents.
Darwin (6.2% gross yield, 10.4% rent growth) and regional WA (5.1% yield, 8.2% rent growth) top the income tables; Sydney (3.3%) remains the lowest-yield capital, with the capitals averaging 3.6% and the regions 4.2%.
Falling prices against rising rents means yields mechanically expand every month this continues — the patient buyer's entry yield improves while they wait. This is the “paid twice for waiting” dynamic we track in our Top 10 Suburbs series and it is now visible in the national aggregates, not just suburb-level data.
6. Credit: The Investor Share Peaked Right Before the Rules Changed
Direct answer
Investors accounted for 40.3% of new lending in the March quarter — the highest share since September 2016 — with interest-only loans at 21.7% of new originations and first-home buyers at 29.2% of owner-occupier lending. Cotality expects the investor share to fall from here as the Federal Budget reforms take effect.
The March-quarter lending data (the pack's most dated section, but the freshest ABS/APRA cut available) records a decade high in investor participation:
- Investors: 40.3% of new lending nationally — the highest share since September 2016. NSW 43.4%, SA 42.5%, QLD 41.4%.
- Cotality states plainly that this share “is likely to fall in coming quarters as we see the impact of policy changes in the Federal Budget” — the NG/CGT reforms hit contracts from 12 May, and the SMSF borrowing ban commenced 10 August.
- Interest-only loans reached 21.7% of new originations, the highest in the APRA series shown — consistent with the cash-flow-preservation lending we flagged when AMP and Westpac redesigned their investor products.
- First-home buyers: 29.2% of owner-occupier lending, above the 27.6% decade average, pushed by the expanded 5% deposit guarantee — and high-LVR (90%+) owner-occupier lending has risen to 10.6% as they use it.
- Mortgage rates: owner-occupier variable 6.25%; investor variable 6.41%. The average new owner-occupier mortgage of $735,000 costs just over $350/month more after this year's three hikes; median-household borrowing capacity is down 7.0% (more than $53,000).
Investor Share of New Lending by State — March Quarter 2026
Value of investor lending as a share of total new lending (excluding refinancing). The national 40.3% (amber) is the highest since September 2016 — and the share is heaviest in the affordable states (SA 42.5%, QLD 41.4%) whose lower-quartile values are outperforming. Cotality expects the share to fall as the Federal Budget reforms take effect.
Source: Cotality Monthly Housing Chart Pack, August 2026 edition (July 2026 data). Underlying data: ABS Lending Indicators, March quarter 2026.
There is a risk here for this site's own central thesis, and it belongs on the page: the decade-high investor share is concentrated in exactly the affordable states whose lower-quartile values are outperforming — SA at 42.5%, QLD at 41.4%. Investors are the marginal buyer of the affordable tier. If the reforms and the SMSF borrowing ban (commenced 10 August, making new fund purchases cash-only) remove a meaningful share of that demand from September, the lower-quartile outperformance this analysis leans on loses part of its bid. That is the invalidation test to watch, and the June- and September-quarter lending data will score it.
Investor takeaway
March's decade-high investor share is a rear-view photograph of the pre-reform market — the last full quarter under the old tax and borrowing rules. The June-quarter release (early September) will show the first deadline-racing and the first post-reform pullback; if the share falls hard while rents keep compounding at 5.9%, the medium-term case (fewer landlords, undiminished tenant demand) strengthens — but watch whether the affordable tier's price resilience survives the exit of its marginal buyer.
7. Supply Pipeline: Houses Recovering, Units Still Stuck
Direct answer
House approvals rose to 10,868 in June — up 16% annually and 10.7% above the decade average — while unit approvals (7,460) remain well below February's 9,514 peak as construction costs keep choking apartment feasibility. Dwelling commencements rose 3.6% over the quarter.
The medium-term investor reading is unchanged: detached supply is responding, higher-density supply is not — and the rental shortage is concentrated in exactly the unit stock that is not being built. Unit asking rents outrunning house rents (+7.7% versus +6.8% annually on SQM's July data — the price signal of that shortfall) is the same story we documented in units versus houses.
8. What to Watch
Direct answer
Four dated releases decide the next leg: the 19 August Wage Price Index, the ~26 August July CPI, the ~1 September Cotality HVI, and early September's June-quarter lending data — the first hard read on how much investor demand the reforms removed.
- 19 Aug — ABS Wage Price Index (June quarter): the rents-versus-wages gap that caps rental growth. If wages stay near 3.3%, rent growth above 6% keeps eating tenant incomes — a ceiling, eventually.
- ~26 Aug — ABS monthly CPI (July): the September RBA meeting's key input; the pack notes the August hold was consensus after June's 3.8% headline print. A hot print revives the hike risk our stress-tests assume.
- ~1 Sep — Cotality August HVI: the first read on whether the mid-sized capitals follow Sydney and Melbourne toward the –5% scenario line. If they do, NAB's path is confirming and patience keeps paying; if they stabilise, the affordable-tier bid survived the winter.
- Early Sep — ABS June-quarter lending: how far the 40.3% investor share fell — the direct test of the affordable-tier risk flagged above.
Methodology
What the Chart Pack is: Cotality's monthly compendium around its Home Value Index — market size, value indices (including the stratified quartile series), sales, days on market, vendor discounting, listings, clearance rates, rents, yields, approvals and credit data. Index figures are July 2026; daily-index readings run to 10 August; listings cover the four weeks to 9 August; ABS/APRA lending and loan-risk data are March quarter 2026 (the freshest available cut, predating the May Budget reforms); mortgage rates are RBA June 2026 averages. Decline scenarios are drawn from each city's cyclical peak rather than its record high. Dollar conversions of percentage figures (vendor discounts) are our arithmetic. Forecast references (NAB, KPMG) are as published in early August 2026 and attributed in-line.
Sources
- Cotality, Monthly Housing Chart Pack, August 2026 edition (July 2026 data) — cotality.com/au/insights
- Cotality, Home Value Index, July 2026 release — covered in our July HVI analysis
- ABS, Lending Indicators (March quarter 2026); Building Approvals (June 2026); APRA quarterly property exposures (March quarter 2026); RBA lenders' interest rates (June 2026)
- NAB Economics, August 2026 forecast revision — covered in our NAB Monitor analysis
- KPMG Australia, Residential Property Market Outlook, August 2026 update (4 August 2026)
- SQM Research, National Vacancy Rates, July 2026 — covered in our July vacancy analysis
Frequently Asked Questions
Sydney is 5.3% below its January 2026 record, and Brisbane (-0.7%), Adelaide (-0.4%) and Perth (-0.4%) are just off their May 2026 records. Melbourne sits 5.5% below its March 2022 record high — and Cotality notes both Sydney and Melbourne are already more than 5% below their recent cyclical peaks. Canberra is 4.2% below its May 2022 record after a -2.1% quarter. Nationally, values fell 1.9% over the three months to July but remain 5.3% higher than a year ago.
Not on Cotality's August data. New listings are running 7.1% below the five-year average — there is no forced-selling wave — and the market is slowing because buyer demand pulled back against higher rates and reduced borrowing capacity. Cotality's clearance-rate correlation does imply further falls; a demand-led decline with orderly supply is a correction, not a crash. The spring listing season is the next stress test.
Regionals broadly (+9.7% annually; regional SA and WA +2.1% for the quarter), Darwin (+2.4% quarterly, at record highs), Hobart (+1.4% quarterly) and the lower-quartile segments of Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. The growth that remains is concentrated in affordable, high-yield markets.
It is March-quarter data — the last full quarter before the May Budget reforms and August SMSF borrowing ban were even announced, so it captures the undisturbed pre-reform peak. The June quarter will additionally show buyers racing the 12 May cut-off and the first post-announcement pullback; Cotality expects the share to fall from here. Early September's data gives the first honest post-reform read.
Waiting has a measurable payoff right now — prices are falling while entry yields rise, so the patient buyer improves on both sides — but the scenarios are city-specific: Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth are only 0.4–0.7% off their peaks and their lower quartiles are still rising, so a 10% fall there is a possibility, not a schedule. Our approach: negotiate hard against today's 33-day selling times and 3.9% vendor discounts rather than anchoring to a scenario line no one can time, and stress-test any purchase at both current prices and 10% lower.
The Bottom Line
The August chart pack documents an orderly, demand-led downturn with a hard split down the middle: expensive capitals falling, affordable tiers and regionals holding or rising, rents compounding regardless. Every buyer-leverage metric — days on market, vendor discounts, clearance — is at its most buyer-favourable readings of this cycle, while gross yields sit at three-year highs and climb monthly.
For investors following our framework, the pack is support rather than news: the affordable, tight-vacancy, yield-led markets are carrying the cycle. The two things that could change the story are early September's data (post-ban HVI and post-reform lending, the test of whether the affordable tier keeps its marginal buyer) and the spring listing surge.
Disclaimer
This article is general information only and does not constitute financial or tax advice. Consider your circumstances and seek professional advice before acting.
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