Market Research & Insights

Independent analysis of major market reports from HIA, Cotality, PropTrack, Westpac and other leading institutions — interpreted through the lens of property investors.

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Data Trackers — always the latest figures

Vacancy Rate Tracker
1.3% national — June 2026

SQM Research vacancy rates, national and by capital, updated with every monthly release.

Home Value Index Tracker
−0.4% national — June 2026

The Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) HVI plus Housing Chart Pack highlights, updated monthly.

PropTrack Home Price Index Tracker
−0.3% national — June 2026

REA Group's home price index, national and by capital, updated with every monthly release.

NABNEW
August 8, 2026

NAB Housing Monitor August 2026: Forecast Cut to −5% — Sydney and Melbourne Face 10% Peak-to-Trough Falls

NAB's August Monitor formalises the downturn: the 2026 capital-city forecast cut from −2% to −5% in two months, with Sydney and Melbourne facing ~10% peak-to-trough declines and 2–4% falls across the mid-sized capitals before a late-2027 recovery. The more actionable data sits underneath the forecast — turnover down to 4.1%, days on market at a five-year high of 34, revisions consistently landing lower — while advertised rents compound at 5.8% annualised into 1.3% vacancy. Why this downturn is the inverse of 2018–19 for yields, what would make NAB's forecast wrong in both directions, and the buyer/holder/seller/SMSF playbook.

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Cotality
August 3, 2026

Cotality Home Value Index July 2026: The Downturn Broadens — Largest Monthly Fall Since December 2022

Cotality's July HVI fell 0.7% nationally — overtaking June as the largest single-month decline since December 2022 — and the story is breadth: Brisbane (−0.6%) and Adelaide (−0.2%) posted second consecutive falls, the combined regionals turned negative (−0.2%) for the first time since January 2023, and five of eight capitals declined. The sharpest signal is the tier split — upper-quartile values fell 3.2% over three months while the lower tier rose 0.3% — borrowing capacity is setting price discovery. Perth (+0.1%) is the last capital rising, with an asterisk: Cotality revised its June Perth read down 120bp to −0.5%. Full city-by-city analysis, what would mark the floor, and the per-profile playbook into the 11 August RBA meeting.

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PropTrack
August 3, 2026

PropTrack Home Price Index July 2026: Fourth Straight Fall — Every Capital Down Except Darwin

PropTrack's July index fell 0.3% nationally — a fourth consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest in three years on the index that consistently prints milder moves, which is exactly why it matters: when the gentler measure has every capital except Darwin falling, the correction is confirmed beyond argument. The milestone ledger: Perth back under $1 million ($999,000), Canberra's annual growth negative (−0.9%), Sydney at −1.6% annually, national prices 1.8% below peak yet still +3.9% for the year. Includes the Cotality cross-check (the two indices now disagree only on Perth), why PropTrack's magnitudes run milder, the regional resilience read (+8% annual), and the range-underwriting framework for buying in a falling market.

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ABS
August 1, 2026

ABS CPI June 2026: Inflation Eases to 3.8%, Trimmed Mean Holds at 3.6% — The August Hike Case Fades

The June quarter CPI broke the market's way: headline inflation eased to 3.8% (below the RBA's own forecast track), the trimmed mean held at 3.6% after three straight monthly rises, and within a day Westpac had scrapped the last major-bank hike call. Markets now price roughly a 4% chance of an August move. Why the quarterly survey settles the question the monthly prints raised, the housing detail that stays sticky — electricity +22.4% as rebates end, new dwelling costs accelerating to +5.8%, CPI rents still lagging advertised — how much of the good news is fuel and excise policy, the 11 August scenarios, and the six-point investor playbook for a long 4.35% plateau.

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Domain
July 25, 2026

Domain House Price Report June Quarter 2026: The Boom Ends as Adelaide Overtakes Melbourne

Domain's June quarter report converts the downturn into dollar medians: combined capital house prices fell 1.4% (−$17,489) — the first quarterly decline in more than three years, ending the longest growth run since 2012-15. Sydney dropped 3.3% to $1,733,891 (worst since 2022), Melbourne 3.1% to $1,041,205, while Adelaide surged 4.8% to a record $1.125 million and overtook Melbourne for fourth place. Units fell everywhere except Darwin (+5.0%) after a year of 20-25% growth in Perth and Brisbane. Full investor analysis: how the boom ended, the two-speed split, yield repair against Cotality's Q2 rental data (3.7% gross), the downturn compared with 2017-19 and 2022-23, our city-by-city stance and the six-week watchlist into the August RBA decision.

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SQM Research
July 18, 2026

SQM National Vacancy June 2026: 1.3% — The Easing Is Confirmed, But Only in Half the Country

SQM Research's 14 July release puts national vacancy at 1.3% for June (39,229 dwellings) — back at its June 2025 level after the March low of 1.0%, suggesting the 2025 tightening cycle has paused. But the national number hides a two-speed market: Sydney (+1,137 vacancies, 82% of the national rise), Canberra and Hobart eased while Perth tightened to 0.6% and Darwin held 0.3% with just 64 vacant dwellings. Asking rents eased 0.4% over the month yet remain +8.1% YoY, with Darwin (+13.8%) and Hobart (+12.1%) still running double digits. Full city-by-city breakdown, the yield arithmetic against Cotality's price downturn, supply-pipeline context, what could re-tighten the market, and investor takeaways by cohort.

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ABS
July 11, 2026

ABS Building Approvals May 2026: Apartments Crash 30% — Australia's Housing Supply Scorecard

The ABS's May 2026 release (1 July) shows total dwelling approvals down 1.1% to 17,019 — but the headline hides a sharp rotation: house approvals hit 10,537, the highest since September 2021, while apartment approvals crashed 30% in original terms to 2,877, about 29% below their own 12-month average. Total building value hit a record $21.07 billion, yet residential fell 5.7% as data-centre projects surged 41%. Full investor analysis: why apartment feasibility is broken, what builders need to see, the Housing Accord arithmetic (~15% short), the new-build carve-out's early baseline, the two-year transmission from approvals to rents, what could break the scarcity thesis (including Build-to-Rent), and position-by-position investor takeaways.

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PropTrack
July 11, 2026

PropTrack Home Price Index June 2026: Australian Home Prices Fall a Third Month as Seven of Eight Capitals Decline

PropTrack's June 2026 index (released 1 July) fell 0.3% nationally — the third consecutive monthly decline, and the broadest: seven of eight capitals fell, with only Darwin rising and regional markets flat at record highs (+9.5% annually). PropTrack attributes the falls to three rate rises, with the Budget's housing tax changes an added headwind on investor demand. Units (+6.7%) are outgrowing houses (+5.6%) as the national house median crosses $1,001,000. Full analysis: the PropTrack-vs-Cotality cross-check (and the Perth sign divergence requiring confirmation), why indices disagree, the borrowing-capacity arithmetic, the demand floor under the market, and the $71,900 equity cushion that argues grind, not crash.

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Cotality
July 4, 2026

Cotality Home Value Index June 2026: The Downturn Deepens — Australia's Biggest Monthly Fall Since December 2022

Cotality's June 2026 Home Value Index (released ~1 July 2026) fell 0.4% nationally — the largest single-month decline since December 2022 and the third straight fall since the market peaked in March. It is a Sydney (−1.2%) and Melbourne (−1.0%) story: combined capitals dropped 1.3% over the June quarter while Darwin, Perth, Hobart and Brisbane still edged higher and the regions held (+0.3%). Auction clearances sit below 50%, capital-city sales are down 16.2% on a year ago, yet rents are re-accelerating (~5.9%) so yields are expanding. Full investor analysis: the 8-capital split, why the market turned, the PropTrack cross-check, a 2022-vs-2026 comparison, three scenarios and the outlook to a 2027 rate-cut recovery.

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ABS
June 27, 2026

ABS CPI May 2026: Headline Eases to 4.0% but Trimmed Mean Climbs to 3.6% — The Hawkish Read Before August

The ABS Monthly CPI Indicator (released 25 June 2026) reads better on the front page than underneath. Headline annual inflation eased to 4.0% (from 4.2%), but the RBA's preferred trimmed mean rose a second straight month to 3.6% (3.3% Mar → 3.4% Apr → 3.6% May) — above the 2–3% target band and broadening, not concentrated. The headline fall is flattered by energy base effects (electricity +21.1% headline but +3.9% ex-rebate), while new dwelling costs accelerated to +5.6%. Full investor analysis: the headline-vs-underlying divergence, what surprised economists, the housing breakdown, the August RBA split (Westpac alone tips 4.85%), three rate scenarios with repayment maths, and the read-through for borrowing capacity, holding costs and rents.

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Westpac
June 20, 2026

Westpac–MI Consumer Sentiment June 2026: House-Price Expectations Crash Below the Long-Run Average for the First Time in Three Years

Westpac's June 2026 survey (released 9 June) shows the House Price Expectations Index collapsing 14.9% to 128.2 — below its long-run average of 130.3 for the first time in nearly three years — as the share of consumers expecting price rises fell from 66% to 52%. Yet the 'time to buy a dwelling' index rose 12.6% to 81.1: the classic signature of a market tipping toward buyers. Full investor analysis of the sentiment-leads-prices link, the tax-reform-uncertainty channel, the two-speed state split (NSW −19%, VIC −18% vs WA −1%), the contrarian read and what would invalidate it.

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ABS
June 13, 2026

ABS Total Value of Dwellings, March Quarter 2026: Australia's Housing Hits $12.8 Trillion as the WA–Victoria Gap Widens to 21 Points

The official ABS valuation of the entire dwelling stock (released 9 June 2026) confirms what the monthly indices flagged. Total value rose 2.5% (+$315.9bn) to a record $12,772.6 billion (+11.9% over the year); the mean dwelling price reached $1,111,100, up 2.0% for the quarter but with annual growth still accelerating to 10.3%. The state split is stark — WA mean prices +25.4% annually vs Victoria +4.1% (the only quarterly faller), a ~21-point divergence now visible in government data. Full analysis: total-value-vs-mean-price, ABS methodology and mean-vs-median, a five-year housing-wealth history, the structural supply shortfall, cross-source reconciliation and the key risks investors should watch.

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Monthly Review
June 6, 2026

Australian Property Market May 2026: Monthly Review — Prices Stall Nationally as Sydney & Melbourne Fall a Third Month

Two national price measures landed within days and told the same story: the 2026 growth cycle has stalled. Cotality went flat (0.0%) — its weakest month in a year — and PropTrack slipped -0.04%, while Sydney and Melbourne fell a third straight month and Perth (+26.0% annual) and Darwin (+20.3%) kept leading, a 24-point divergence. Auction clearances dropped to ~51% (Sydney) and ~54% (Melbourne) from ~68% a year ago; listings are loosening (total -2.6% YoY, new +22.4%) and discounting widened to 3.1%. Full review with capital-city snapshot, investor lending (share 40.3%), migration, construction pipeline, 2018-vs-2022 comparison, bull/bear scenarios and the winter outlook.

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ABS
May 30, 2026

ABS CPI April 2026: Inflation Holds at 4.2% — What It Means for the June RBA Decision and Property Investors

The ABS Monthly CPI Indicator (released 27 May 2026) is the last major inflation read before the June RBA meeting. Headline inflation eased to 4.2% (from 4.6%) — but largely on the Government's fuel-excise cut, while the RBA-relevant trimmed mean rose to 3.4%, reportedly its highest since late 2024. Housing held 6.3% (electricity +22.5%, new dwellings +4.7%). Markets trimmed August-hike odds to ~40% from ~51% (Reuters); CBA/ANZ tip a hold at 4.35%, NAB 4.60%, Westpac 4.85%. Full investor read-through: a restrictive-rate plateau, constrained borrowing capacity, rising holding costs, offset by tight rentals. Plus services-inflation, two-speed geographic nuance, and what to watch next.

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ABS
May 23, 2026

ABS Lending Indicators March Quarter 2026: Investor Loans Down 5.3% — The First Post-Hike Mortgage Snapshot

The Australian Bureau of Statistics' 13 May 2026 release is the first Tier-1 mortgage dataset after the Feb and March RBA hikes and APRA's 1 February DTI cap activation. Investor loan commitments −5.3% q/q (value −3.0%); owner-occupier −6.9%; total dwelling loans −6.2%. But YoY investor activity still +18.8% by volume and +25.3% by value. Internal refinancing by investors surged +30.3% YoY — the biggest single move in the bulletin. Construction lending +58.1% YoY ahead of the Budget. NSW investor average loan size $857K now essentially equal to NSW OO average — a first on record. Full chart-by-chart analysis with cohort takeaways and Q2 watchlist.

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SQM Research
May 16, 2026

SQM National Vacancy April 2026: First Rise in 12 Months — 1.2% Signals the Turning Point

SQM Research's 12 May 2026 release shows national vacancy rising from 1.0% to 1.2% in April — the first material monthly rise in 12 months. 35,258 vacant dwellings. Sydney, Canberra and Hobart eased; Darwin tightened further to 0.3%; Brisbane held 0.8%, Perth 0.6%. Asking rents still climbing 7.3% YoY ($696.94 national combined). Full city-by-city breakdown, three-scenario outlook for the next print, and what the directional shift means for yield-first vs Sydney/Melbourne investors.

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Top 10 SuburbsTOP 10
May 12, 2026

Top 10 Suburbs for Property Investment — May 2026

Adelaide takes the #1 house spot (Smithfield) as Perth softens. New Rate-Resilience filter applied after the 6 May hike to 4.35% (vacancy ≤2% AND yield ≥5% OR median ≤$600K). Plus a new Infrastructure Watchlist of 10 suburbs whose data hasn't yet repriced their catalyst. Five separate rankings plus the forward list.

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Cotality
May 15, 2026

Cotality Housing Chart Pack May 2026: Capital City Divergence Hits 24 Points as Momentum Eases Across All Eight Capitals

Combined-capitals national index up just 1.6% over three months — the softest since April 2025. All eight capitals losing momentum on the rolling 28-day Daily Index. Sydney and Melbourne now in monthly decline (-0.6% each). Capital city divergence at 24 percentage points (Perth +26.0% vs Melbourne +2.0%), the widest in Cotality's modern dataset. Yields expanding nationally for the first time in this cycle. Full chart-by-chart investor analysis.

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