Market Research & Insights

Independent analysis of major market reports from HIA, Cotality, PropTrack, Westpac and other leading institutions — interpreted through the lens of property investors.

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Data Trackers — always the latest figures

Vacancy Rate Tracker
1.3% national — June 2026

SQM Research vacancy rates, national and by capital, updated with every monthly release.

Home Value Index Tracker
−0.4% national — June 2026

The Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) HVI plus Housing Chart Pack highlights, updated monthly.

PropTrack Home Price Index Tracker
−0.3% national — June 2026

REA Group's home price index, national and by capital, updated with every monthly release.

RBANEW
October 10, 2026

RBA Financial Stability Review October 2026: How Much Price Fall Can Australian Households Absorb?

The RBA's half-yearly stress read, translated for investors. Fewer than 1% of mortgage borrowers are in negative equity after a 5.2% national fall; a further uniform 20% fall would lift that to about 5%, and the March Review's 40% case left 80% of mortgagors in positive equity. About 2% of variable-rate owner-occupiers are in cash-flow shortfall, up from 1% in March, with the median borrower more than a year ahead on repayments. In the very adverse scenario (unemployment 6.3%, inflation 7%, cash rate 5.6%, prices down 20%) the shortfall share reaches about 5% and fewer than 1% combine a shortfall, low savings and negative equity, while bank CET1 falls only from 12.4% to 11.6%. The Review's own words on investors selling to limit losses and on the rise in interest-only lending, each dated forecast set against the fall to date, gross interest cover by capital at 6.75%, four gaps in the reassurance and five investor profiles.

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Cotality
October 3, 2026

Cotality Home Value Index September 2026: Values Fall 1.1% for a Sixth Month as 97% of Capital-City Suburbs Decline Over Three Months

Cotality's September index fell 1.1%, a sixth monthly decline, leaving national home values 5.2% below the March peak and flat over the year, while 97% of capital-city suburbs fell over the three months to September. Brisbane (−1.5%) recorded the sharpest monthly fall ahead of Sydney (−1.4%), Adelaide and Perth also fell more than 1%, and August was revised from −0.9% to −1.2% on the latest data. Full analysis: the city and rest-of-state tables, sales down 19.1% with inventory up 23.1%, gross yields at 3.85% and an interest-cover test at the post-hike interest-only rate, the PropTrack cross-check (−0.2%, 3.3% below peak), what the RBA's October Financial Stability Review says about forced selling, and labelled scenarios for the next three prints.

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Top 10 SuburbsTOP 10
September 26, 2026

Top 10 Suburbs for Property Investment in Australia — September 2026

Our September 2026 screen of more than 100 suburbs on the new, fully reproducible PIS v2.0: Mowbray (TAS) leads houses and Manunda (Cairns) leads units, with Tasmania, Darwin and Palmerston, Cairns, Townsville and regional WA taking over both lists as Perth and Adelaide yields compress. Every component score and the suburbs displaced by our list rules are published, an interest-cover stress test shows seven of ten units cover their interest at an illustrative 7% (three of ten houses do), and August entries are revised on the latest data, including the move to postcode-level vacancy for every suburb.

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SQM Research
September 19, 2026

SQM August 2026 Vacancy Rate: 1.3% Holds as Sydney and Canberra Loosen and Asking Rents Stall

SQM's August release held the national vacancy rate at 1.3% for a third month, but vacant stock is 8.7% higher than a year ago and the map has split: Sydney has 26% more vacant rentals than last August and Canberra 29% more (now 2.1%, the highest capital), while Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Darwin have fewer and stay below 1%. National advertised rents were flat over the 30 days to 4 September, Sydney house rents fell 1.2%, and SQM calls the 7.3% annual figure "history." Full analysis: what changed month on month, the vacancy-versus-Cotality-price pairing (with what it does not prove), the three rent measures side by side (SQM 7.3%, Cotality 5.7%, CPI 3.6%), SQM's spring test and December path, wages at 3.2%, population and approvals, illustrative underwriting ranges by city, and the dated tests to mid-October.

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PropTrack
September 12, 2026

PropTrack Home Price Index August 2026: Prices Fall 0.2% for a Fifth Month

PropTrack's August index recorded a fifth consecutive national fall and, for the second month, a decline in every capital except Darwin — but the print describes two markets: the combined capitals are 3.6% below peak and barely positive for the year (+0.2%), while regional prices were flat, sit 0.5% below peak and are still up 6.6%, with regional SA, WA, Tasmania and the NT at their peaks. Adelaide's −0.9% was the largest capital fall in a market up 71.5% over five years; annual growth compressed from 3.9% to 1.8% in one release. Full analysis: the base-effect and revision mechanics, houses vs units by city, the PropTrack–Cotality cross-check (the widest magnitude gap of the cycle), Westpac's September buyer sentiment, final clearance at 49.3%, the RBA's market-based cash-rate assumption near 4.5% through 2027 and what it does to the banks' 2027 recovery calls, and three labelled scenarios for the September print.

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Cotality
September 5, 2026

Cotality Home Value Index August 2026: Home Values Fall 0.9% as 93% of Capital-City Suburbs Decline

The fifth straight monthly fall leaves national values 3.6% below the March peak, and the downturn has gone general: 93% of capital-city suburbs fell through winter, up from 45.8% in autumn. Sydney is 7.1% below its February peak and falling faster than at the same stage of 2022–23; July's first prints were revised sharply lower (Perth from +0.1% to −1.3%); Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth posted their steepest falls of the cycle. Full analysis: the revisions, houses vs units, the demand-led mechanics with SQM's distressed-listings data, yields at a six-year-high 3.79% with an illustrative cash-flow example, the PropTrack cross-check, CBA's new −9% peak-to-trough call beside NAB, ANZ, Domain and Westpac on a like-for-like basis, the supply pipeline, and bull/base/bear cases with the floor signals to watch.

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ABS
August 29, 2026

ABS CPI July 2026: Inflation Falls to 3.5% as RBA Hike Risk Returns

The most double-edged print of the year: headline inflation eased to its 2026 low while the monthly trimmed mean rose 0.5% — a 12-month high — and within two days three of the four majors had pencilled in a fourth hike to 4.60% (NAB for September, CBA and ANZ for November), with September market pricing near 50%. Full analysis: the base-effects arithmetic behind the falling headline, the ABS analytical series showing the breadth (services 0.7%, non-tradables 0.8% in the month), the capital-city dispersion from 3.2% to 4.5%, the housing group's sticky spine, the rate map in one table, and the investor transmission chain — stress-test at 4.60%, watch the four dates.

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ABS
August 22, 2026

ABS Lending Indicators June Quarter 2026: Investor Loans Down 8.6% — The Demand Shock Arrives in the Data

The ABS's 14 August release shows new investor loan commitments falling 8.6% by number and 10.2% by value (−$4.2bn) — the largest fall since the September quarter 2022 — with annual growth collapsing from 19.4% to 2.8%. The state map is the story: NSW −15.5% and Victoria −14.2% while NT, ACT and Tasmania grew; investor share of new lending reversed from 40.3% to 38.0%; and investor construction loans hit a series-high 8,468 as the new-build carve-out redirects capital. Full analysis: loan-size shifts, the FHB counter-cycle, the refinancing unwind, cross-source reconciliation, and the 11 November watchlist.

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Top 10 SuburbsTOP 10
August 15, 2026

Top 10 Suburbs for Property Investment — August 2026

The series returns with its biggest edition: Armadale (WA) reclaims #1 houses, Cannington (WA) rises to #1 units, and regional Australia enters the rankings for the first time — Armidale (NSW) debuts at #2 units on the country's strongest SA4 unit growth. Plus the series' first pick-by-pick scorecard: every re-verified April pick is positive (houses ~+15%, units ~+16% vs capitals +3.9%), the two calls we got wrong are documented, and a mid-verification reprice (Salisbury $361K → $525K) is printed rather than buried. Five ranked lists, confidence grades, corrected catalyst map, and the post-LRBA September test named on every regional entry.

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Cotality
August 14, 2026

Cotality Housing Chart Pack August 2026: What a 5%, 10% or 20% Fall Actually Looks Like

Cotality's August pack opens with downturn scenarios — the data house that spent two years publishing record highs is now publishing fall maps. Sydney and Melbourne are already 5%+ below peak, but a 20% fall would rewind Perth only to April 2025 while erasing nearly a decade in Melbourne. Every buyer-leverage metric at cycle highs (capitals DoM 33 days, vendor discounts 3.9%, clearance sub-50% since May), gross yields at a three-year-high 3.72%, and investors at a decade-high 40.3% of new lending in the last quarter before the reforms bite — including the risk that poses to the affordable tier's own bid. Short-form, section-by-section investor analysis.

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SQM Research
August 14, 2026

SQM National Vacancy July 2026: 1.3% Holds — and the Rental Map Splits in Two

SQM's 13 August release holds national vacancy at 1.3% (40,771 dwellings), but the detail reads like the price map: Sydney and Melbourne eased to 1.7% and Canberra to 1.8% — the loosest capital — while Adelaide tightened to 0.6% and five capitals sit below 1%. Asking rents +7.2% year-on-year with units (+7.7%) outrunning houses (+6.8%); Darwin (+14.1%) and Hobart (+12.2%) lead, while Adelaide's +3.5% shows tight vacancy sets a floor under rents, not the growth rate. Same-day analysis: the two-speed pattern, the asking-vs-stock rent measures explained, and what to underwrite in each half of the market.

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NAB
August 8, 2026

NAB Housing Monitor August 2026: Forecast Cut to −5% — Sydney and Melbourne Face 10% Peak-to-Trough Falls

NAB's August Monitor formalises the downturn: the 2026 capital-city forecast cut from −2% to −5% in two months, with Sydney and Melbourne facing ~10% peak-to-trough declines and 2–4% falls across the mid-sized capitals before a late-2027 recovery. The more actionable data sits underneath the forecast — turnover down to 4.1%, days on market at a five-year high of 34, revisions consistently landing lower — while advertised rents compound at 5.8% annualised into 1.3% vacancy. Why this downturn is the inverse of 2018–19 for yields, what would make NAB's forecast wrong in both directions, and the buyer/holder/seller/SMSF playbook.

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Cotality
August 3, 2026

Cotality Home Value Index July 2026: The Downturn Broadens — Largest Monthly Fall Since December 2022

Cotality's July HVI fell 0.7% nationally — overtaking June as the largest single-month decline since December 2022 — and the story is breadth: Brisbane (−0.6%) and Adelaide (−0.2%) posted second consecutive falls, the combined regionals turned negative (−0.2%) for the first time since January 2023, and five of eight capitals declined. The sharpest signal is the tier split — upper-quartile values fell 3.2% over three months while the lower tier rose 0.3% — borrowing capacity is setting price discovery. Perth (+0.1%) is the last capital rising, with an asterisk: Cotality revised its June Perth read down 120bp to −0.5%. Full city-by-city analysis, what would mark the floor, and the per-profile playbook into the 11 August RBA meeting.

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PropTrack
August 3, 2026

PropTrack Home Price Index July 2026: Fourth Straight Fall — Every Capital Down Except Darwin

PropTrack's July index fell 0.3% nationally — a fourth consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest in three years on the index that consistently prints milder moves, which is exactly why it matters: when the gentler measure has every capital except Darwin falling, the correction is confirmed beyond argument. The milestone ledger: Perth back under $1 million ($999,000), Canberra's annual growth negative (−0.9%), Sydney at −1.6% annually, national prices 1.8% below peak yet still +3.9% for the year. Includes the Cotality cross-check (the two indices now disagree only on Perth), why PropTrack's magnitudes run milder, the regional resilience read (+8% annual), and the range-underwriting framework for buying in a falling market.

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ABS
August 1, 2026

ABS CPI June 2026: Inflation Eases to 3.8%, Trimmed Mean Holds at 3.6% — The August Hike Case Fades

The June quarter CPI broke the market's way: headline inflation eased to 3.8% (below the RBA's own forecast track), the trimmed mean held at 3.6% after three straight monthly rises, and within a day Westpac had scrapped the last major-bank hike call. Markets now price roughly a 4% chance of an August move. Why the quarterly survey settles the question the monthly prints raised, the housing detail that stays sticky — electricity +22.4% as rebates end, new dwelling costs accelerating to +5.8%, CPI rents still lagging advertised — how much of the good news is fuel and excise policy, the 11 August scenarios, and the six-point investor playbook for a long 4.35% plateau.

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Domain
July 25, 2026

Domain House Price Report June Quarter 2026: The Boom Ends as Adelaide Overtakes Melbourne

Domain's June quarter report converts the downturn into dollar medians: combined capital house prices fell 1.4% (−$17,489) — the first quarterly decline in more than three years, ending the longest growth run since 2012-15. Sydney dropped 3.3% to $1,733,891 (worst since 2022), Melbourne 3.1% to $1,041,205, while Adelaide surged 4.8% to a record $1.125 million and overtook Melbourne for fourth place. Units fell everywhere except Darwin (+5.0%) after a year of 20-25% growth in Perth and Brisbane. Full investor analysis: how the boom ended, the two-speed split, yield repair against Cotality's Q2 rental data (3.7% gross), the downturn compared with 2017-19 and 2022-23, our city-by-city stance and the six-week watchlist into the August RBA decision.

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SQM Research
July 18, 2026

SQM National Vacancy June 2026: 1.3% — The Easing Is Confirmed, But Only in Half the Country

SQM Research's 14 July release puts national vacancy at 1.3% for June (39,229 dwellings) — back at its June 2025 level after the March low of 1.0%, suggesting the 2025 tightening cycle has paused. But the national number hides a two-speed market: Sydney (+1,137 vacancies, 82% of the national rise), Canberra and Hobart eased while Perth tightened to 0.6% and Darwin held 0.3% with just 64 vacant dwellings. Asking rents eased 0.4% over the month yet remain +8.1% YoY, with Darwin (+13.8%) and Hobart (+12.1%) still running double digits. Full city-by-city breakdown, the yield arithmetic against Cotality's price downturn, supply-pipeline context, what could re-tighten the market, and investor takeaways by cohort.

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ABS
July 11, 2026

ABS Building Approvals May 2026: Apartments Crash 30% — Australia's Housing Supply Scorecard

The ABS's May 2026 release (1 July) shows total dwelling approvals down 1.1% to 17,019 — but the headline hides a sharp rotation: house approvals hit 10,537, the highest since September 2021, while apartment approvals crashed 30% in original terms to 2,877, about 29% below their own 12-month average. Total building value hit a record $21.07 billion, yet residential fell 5.7% as data-centre projects surged 41%. Full investor analysis: why apartment feasibility is broken, what builders need to see, the Housing Accord arithmetic (~15% short), the new-build carve-out's early baseline, the two-year transmission from approvals to rents, what could break the scarcity thesis (including Build-to-Rent), and position-by-position investor takeaways.

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PropTrack
July 11, 2026

PropTrack Home Price Index June 2026: Australian Home Prices Fall a Third Month as Seven of Eight Capitals Decline

PropTrack's June 2026 index (released 1 July) fell 0.3% nationally — the third consecutive monthly decline, and the broadest: seven of eight capitals fell, with only Darwin rising and regional markets flat at record highs (+9.5% annually). PropTrack attributes the falls to three rate rises, with the Budget's housing tax changes an added headwind on investor demand. Units (+6.7%) are outgrowing houses (+5.6%) as the national house median crosses $1,001,000. Full analysis: the PropTrack-vs-Cotality cross-check (and the Perth sign divergence requiring confirmation), why indices disagree, the borrowing-capacity arithmetic, the demand floor under the market, and the $71,900 equity cushion that argues grind, not crash.

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Cotality
July 4, 2026

Cotality Home Value Index June 2026: The Downturn Deepens — Australia's Biggest Monthly Fall Since December 2022

Cotality's June 2026 Home Value Index (released ~1 July 2026) fell 0.4% nationally — the largest single-month decline since December 2022 and the third straight fall since the market peaked in March. It is a Sydney (−1.2%) and Melbourne (−1.0%) story: combined capitals dropped 1.3% over the June quarter while Darwin, Perth, Hobart and Brisbane still edged higher and the regions held (+0.3%). Auction clearances sit below 50%, capital-city sales are down 16.2% on a year ago, yet rents are re-accelerating (~5.9%) so yields are expanding. Full investor analysis: the 8-capital split, why the market turned, the PropTrack cross-check, a 2022-vs-2026 comparison, three scenarios and the outlook to a 2027 rate-cut recovery.

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ABS
June 27, 2026

ABS CPI May 2026: Headline Eases to 4.0% but Trimmed Mean Climbs to 3.6% — The Hawkish Read Before August

The ABS Monthly CPI Indicator (released 25 June 2026) reads better on the front page than underneath. Headline annual inflation eased to 4.0% (from 4.2%), but the RBA's preferred trimmed mean rose a second straight month to 3.6% (3.3% Mar → 3.4% Apr → 3.6% May) — above the 2–3% target band and broadening, not concentrated. The headline fall is flattered by energy base effects (electricity +21.1% headline but +3.9% ex-rebate), while new dwelling costs accelerated to +5.6%. Full investor analysis: the headline-vs-underlying divergence, what surprised economists, the housing breakdown, the August RBA split (Westpac alone tips 4.85%), three rate scenarios with repayment maths, and the read-through for borrowing capacity, holding costs and rents.

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Westpac
June 20, 2026

Westpac–MI Consumer Sentiment June 2026: House-Price Expectations Crash Below the Long-Run Average for the First Time in Three Years

Westpac's June 2026 survey (released 9 June) shows the House Price Expectations Index collapsing 14.9% to 128.2 — below its long-run average of 130.3 for the first time in nearly three years — as the share of consumers expecting price rises fell from 66% to 52%. Yet the 'time to buy a dwelling' index rose 12.6% to 81.1: the classic signature of a market tipping toward buyers. Full investor analysis of the sentiment-leads-prices link, the tax-reform-uncertainty channel, the two-speed state split (NSW −19%, VIC −18% vs WA −1%), the contrarian read and what would invalidate it.

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ABS
June 13, 2026

ABS Total Value of Dwellings, March Quarter 2026: Australia's Housing Hits $12.8 Trillion as the WA–Victoria Gap Widens to 21 Points

The official ABS valuation of the entire dwelling stock (released 9 June 2026) confirms what the monthly indices flagged. Total value rose 2.5% (+$315.9bn) to a record $12,772.6 billion (+11.9% over the year); the mean dwelling price reached $1,111,100, up 2.0% for the quarter but with annual growth still accelerating to 10.3%. The state split is stark — WA mean prices +25.4% annually vs Victoria +4.1% (the only quarterly faller), a ~21-point divergence now visible in government data. Full analysis: total-value-vs-mean-price, ABS methodology and mean-vs-median, a five-year housing-wealth history, the structural supply shortfall, cross-source reconciliation and the key risks investors should watch.

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Monthly Review
June 6, 2026

Australian Property Market May 2026: Monthly Review — Prices Stall Nationally as Sydney & Melbourne Fall a Third Month

Two national price measures landed within days and told the same story: the 2026 growth cycle has stalled. Cotality went flat (0.0%) — its weakest month in a year — and PropTrack slipped -0.04%, while Sydney and Melbourne fell a third straight month and Perth (+26.0% annual) and Darwin (+20.3%) kept leading, a 24-point divergence. Auction clearances dropped to ~51% (Sydney) and ~54% (Melbourne) from ~68% a year ago; listings are loosening (total -2.6% YoY, new +22.4%) and discounting widened to 3.1%. Full review with capital-city snapshot, investor lending (share 40.3%), migration, construction pipeline, 2018-vs-2022 comparison, bull/bear scenarios and the winter outlook.

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ABS
May 30, 2026

ABS CPI April 2026: Inflation Holds at 4.2% — What It Means for the June RBA Decision and Property Investors

The ABS Monthly CPI Indicator (released 27 May 2026) is the last major inflation read before the June RBA meeting. Headline inflation eased to 4.2% (from 4.6%) — but largely on the Government's fuel-excise cut, while the RBA-relevant trimmed mean rose to 3.4%, reportedly its highest since late 2024. Housing held 6.3% (electricity +22.5%, new dwellings +4.7%). Markets trimmed August-hike odds to ~40% from ~51% (Reuters); CBA/ANZ tip a hold at 4.35%, NAB 4.60%, Westpac 4.85%. Full investor read-through: a restrictive-rate plateau, constrained borrowing capacity, rising holding costs, offset by tight rentals. Plus services-inflation, two-speed geographic nuance, and what to watch next.

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ABS
May 23, 2026

ABS Lending Indicators March Quarter 2026: Investor Loans Down 5.3% — The First Post-Hike Mortgage Snapshot

The Australian Bureau of Statistics' 13 May 2026 release is the first Tier-1 mortgage dataset after the Feb and March RBA hikes and APRA's 1 February DTI cap activation. Investor loan commitments −5.3% q/q (value −3.0%); owner-occupier −6.9%; total dwelling loans −6.2%. But YoY investor activity still +18.8% by volume and +25.3% by value. Internal refinancing by investors surged +30.3% YoY — the biggest single move in the bulletin. Construction lending +58.1% YoY ahead of the Budget. NSW investor average loan size $857K now essentially equal to NSW OO average — a first on record. Full chart-by-chart analysis with cohort takeaways and Q2 watchlist.

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SQM Research
May 16, 2026

SQM National Vacancy April 2026: First Rise in 12 Months — 1.2% Signals the Turning Point

SQM Research's 12 May 2026 release shows national vacancy rising from 1.0% to 1.2% in April — the first material monthly rise in 12 months. 35,258 vacant dwellings. Sydney, Canberra and Hobart eased; Darwin tightened further to 0.3%; Brisbane held 0.8%, Perth 0.6%. Asking rents still climbing 7.3% YoY ($696.94 national combined). Full city-by-city breakdown, three-scenario outlook for the next print, and what the directional shift means for yield-first vs Sydney/Melbourne investors.

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Top 10 SuburbsTOP 10
May 12, 2026

Top 10 Suburbs for Property Investment — May 2026

Adelaide takes the #1 house spot (Smithfield) as Perth softens. New Rate-Resilience filter applied after the 6 May hike to 4.35% (vacancy ≤2% AND yield ≥5% OR median ≤$600K). Plus a new Infrastructure Watchlist of 10 suburbs whose data hasn't yet repriced their catalyst. Five separate rankings plus the forward list.

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Cotality
May 15, 2026

Cotality Housing Chart Pack May 2026: Capital City Divergence Hits 24 Points as Momentum Eases Across All Eight Capitals

Combined-capitals national index up just 1.6% over three months — the softest since April 2025. All eight capitals losing momentum on the rolling 28-day Daily Index. Sydney and Melbourne now in monthly decline (-0.6% each). Capital city divergence at 24 percentage points (Perth +26.0% vs Melbourne +2.0%), the widest in Cotality's modern dataset. Yields expanding nationally for the first time in this cycle. Full chart-by-chart investor analysis.

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