Market Research & Insights

Independent analysis of major market reports from HIA, Cotality, PropTrack, Westpac and other leading institutions — interpreted through the lens of property investors.

ABSNEW
June 27, 2026

ABS CPI May 2026: Headline Eases to 4.0% but Trimmed Mean Climbs to 3.6% — The Hawkish Read Before August

The ABS Monthly CPI Indicator (released 25 June 2026) reads better on the front page than underneath. Headline annual inflation eased to 4.0% (from 4.2%), but the RBA's preferred trimmed mean rose a second straight month to 3.6% (3.3% Mar → 3.4% Apr → 3.6% May) — above the 2–3% target band and broadening, not concentrated. The headline fall is flattered by energy base effects (electricity +21.1% headline but +3.9% ex-rebate), while new dwelling costs accelerated to +5.6%. Full investor analysis: the headline-vs-underlying divergence, what surprised economists, the housing breakdown, the August RBA split (Westpac alone tips 4.85%), three rate scenarios with repayment maths, and the read-through for borrowing capacity, holding costs and rents.

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Westpac
June 20, 2026

Westpac–MI Consumer Sentiment June 2026: House-Price Expectations Crash Below the Long-Run Average for the First Time in Three Years

Westpac's June 2026 survey (released 9 June) shows the House Price Expectations Index collapsing 14.9% to 128.2 — below its long-run average of 130.3 for the first time in nearly three years — as the share of consumers expecting price rises fell from 66% to 52%. Yet the 'time to buy a dwelling' index rose 12.6% to 81.1: the classic signature of a market tipping toward buyers. Full investor analysis of the sentiment-leads-prices link, the tax-reform-uncertainty channel, the two-speed state split (NSW −19%, VIC −18% vs WA −1%), the contrarian read and what would invalidate it.

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ABS
June 13, 2026

ABS Total Value of Dwellings, March Quarter 2026: Australia's Housing Hits $12.8 Trillion as the WA–Victoria Gap Widens to 21 Points

The official ABS valuation of the entire dwelling stock (released 9 June 2026) confirms what the monthly indices flagged. Total value rose 2.5% (+$315.9bn) to a record $12,772.6 billion (+11.9% over the year); the mean dwelling price reached $1,111,100, up 2.0% for the quarter but with annual growth still accelerating to 10.3%. The state split is stark — WA mean prices +25.4% annually vs Victoria +4.1% (the only quarterly faller), a ~21-point divergence now visible in government data. Full analysis: total-value-vs-mean-price, ABS methodology and mean-vs-median, a five-year housing-wealth history, the structural supply shortfall, cross-source reconciliation and the key risks investors should watch.

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Monthly Review
June 6, 2026

Australian Property Market May 2026: Monthly Review — Prices Stall Nationally as Sydney & Melbourne Fall a Third Month

Two national price measures landed within days and told the same story: the 2026 growth cycle has stalled. Cotality went flat (0.0%) — its weakest month in a year — and PropTrack slipped -0.04%, while Sydney and Melbourne fell a third straight month and Perth (+26.0% annual) and Darwin (+20.3%) kept leading, a 24-point divergence. Auction clearances dropped to ~51% (Sydney) and ~54% (Melbourne) from ~68% a year ago; listings are loosening (total -2.6% YoY, new +22.4%) and discounting widened to 3.1%. Full review with capital-city snapshot, investor lending (share 40.3%), migration, construction pipeline, 2018-vs-2022 comparison, bull/bear scenarios and the winter outlook.

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ABS
May 30, 2026

ABS CPI April 2026: Inflation Holds at 4.2% — What It Means for the June RBA Decision and Property Investors

The ABS Monthly CPI Indicator (released 27 May 2026) is the last major inflation read before the June RBA meeting. Headline inflation eased to 4.2% (from 4.6%) — but largely on the Government's fuel-excise cut, while the RBA-relevant trimmed mean rose to 3.4%, reportedly its highest since late 2024. Housing held 6.3% (electricity +22.5%, new dwellings +4.7%). Markets trimmed August-hike odds to ~40% from ~51% (Reuters); CBA/ANZ tip a hold at 4.35%, NAB 4.60%, Westpac 4.85%. Full investor read-through: a restrictive-rate plateau, constrained borrowing capacity, rising holding costs, offset by tight rentals. Plus services-inflation, two-speed geographic nuance, and what to watch next.

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ABS
May 23, 2026

ABS Lending Indicators March Quarter 2026: Investor Loans Down 5.3% — The First Post-Hike Mortgage Snapshot

The Australian Bureau of Statistics' 13 May 2026 release is the first Tier-1 mortgage dataset after the Feb and March RBA hikes and APRA's 1 February DTI cap activation. Investor loan commitments −5.3% q/q (value −3.0%); owner-occupier −6.9%; total dwelling loans −6.2%. But YoY investor activity still +18.8% by volume and +25.3% by value. Internal refinancing by investors surged +30.3% YoY — the biggest single move in the bulletin. Construction lending +58.1% YoY ahead of the Budget. NSW investor average loan size $857K now essentially equal to NSW OO average — a first on record. Full chart-by-chart analysis with cohort takeaways and Q2 watchlist.

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SQM Research
May 16, 2026

SQM National Vacancy April 2026: First Rise in 12 Months — 1.2% Signals the Turning Point

SQM Research's 12 May 2026 release shows national vacancy rising from 1.0% to 1.2% in April — the first material monthly rise in 12 months. 35,258 vacant dwellings. Sydney, Canberra and Hobart eased; Darwin tightened further to 0.3%; Brisbane held 0.8%, Perth 0.6%. Asking rents still climbing 7.3% YoY ($696.94 national combined). Full city-by-city breakdown, three-scenario outlook for the next print, and what the directional shift means for yield-first vs Sydney/Melbourne investors.

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Top 10 SuburbsTOP 10
May 12, 2026

Top 10 Suburbs for Property Investment — May 2026

Adelaide takes the #1 house spot (Smithfield) as Perth softens. New Rate-Resilience filter applied after the 6 May hike to 4.35% (vacancy ≤2% AND yield ≥5% OR median ≤$600K). Plus a new Infrastructure Watchlist of 10 suburbs whose data hasn't yet repriced their catalyst. Five separate rankings plus the forward list.

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Cotality
May 15, 2026

Cotality Housing Chart Pack May 2026: Capital City Divergence Hits 24 Points as Momentum Eases Across All Eight Capitals

Combined-capitals national index up just 1.6% over three months — the softest since April 2025. All eight capitals losing momentum on the rolling 28-day Daily Index. Sydney and Melbourne now in monthly decline (-0.6% each). Capital city divergence at 24 percentage points (Perth +26.0% vs Melbourne +2.0%), the widest in Cotality's modern dataset. Yields expanding nationally for the first time in this cycle. Full chart-by-chart investor analysis.

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