RBA Rate Hike November 2026: What the Fifth Rise and the RBA's New Forecasts Mean for Investors

Published 7 November 2026 · RBA decision and Statement on Monetary Policy 3 November 2026 · Cotality Home Value Index October 2026 (released 2 November) · Lender announcements as at 5 November · Market pricing as at the 5 November close

The RBA's November 2026 rate hike took the cash rate to 4.85% on Melbourne Cup day, its highest level since late 2008. Once all five 2026 rises are passed through, a $750,000 interest-only investor loan will cost about $781 a month more than it did in January. The big four banks apply the latest rise from Friday 13 November.

The decision was expected, but three things around it changed. Three of the nine Board members voted to hold. The Board dropped September's promise to raise “further if needed”. And the Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) published the same afternoon pushed the return of inflation to the 2–3% band out to late 2027, about three quarters later than the RBA forecast in August, on an assumed cash rate that stays near 4.8% to 4.9% until the end of 2028.

For property investors, the forecasts matter more than the 25 basis points. They describe a housing downturn the RBA calls “one of the steepest over the past 50 years”, an investor lending pullback it links partly to the negative gearing and CGT changes, and rents that have stopped accelerating. Below we set out what the forecasts say, what the hike costs, whether 4.85% is the peak, and how five typical investors might respond.

What changed between the August and November forecasts?

Source: RBA, Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026, Table 3.1 (forecasts finalised 28 October 2026) and August 2026, Table 3.1. Year-ended growth unless stated; unemployment and cash rate are quarterly averages. The cash rate rows are the market path the RBA conditions its forecasts on, not an RBA commitment. Final column: our analysis.

Source: RBA, Statement on Monetary Policy, August and November 2026, Table 3.1; chart: Property Investment Professionals.

Read together, the forecasts describe a Board that expects to hold rates high for an extended period rather than raise them sharply. The trimmed mean only reaches the target midpoint in mid-2028 even with a cash rate near 4.8%, which on the RBA's own description sits “slightly above the top of the range of central estimates of the neutral rate”. Our reading is that this makes early cuts unlikely, while the softer guidance and the 6–3 vote make a run of further rises less likely than markets feared in late October.

What did the RBA decide on 3 November 2026, and why was the vote split?

What the Board said

The statement opens with inflation. “Inflation remains elevated and recent data indicate that it is broadly based,” the Board wrote, adding that “domestic capacity pressures are also judged to have been a little tighter than earlier thought”. It also pointed to AI-related investment and to firms passing on cost pressures.

Housing appears three times. “The economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the unemployment rate has risen.” Falls “in housing prices and turnover are expected to weigh on growth in dwelling investment and household consumption”. And the Board flagged “uncertainties about the extent and economic effects of the downturn in the housing market”.

The forward guidance changed. In September the Board said it would act “including increasing the cash rate target further if needed”. In November it said it “will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions”. UBS's George Tharenou called the change “Clearly dovish” (as reported by ABC News).

Why three members voted to hold

At the press conference, Governor Bullock explained the split (as reported in SBS News' live coverage). The holders “were thinking that housing has reacted. The unemployment rate is drifting up. There is no sign of wages growth accelerating.” With four rises already made this year, they argued it was worth waiting “to get some more data to test that”.

On the case for the rise, Bullock said “Inflation is too high, and our forecasts suggest it will stay higher for longer”, adding that “we are not tightening monetary policy because of the direct impact of oil prices on inflation” (ABC News live coverage). The Board's statement puts the emphasis on domestic capacity pressures, which it judged “a little tighter than earlier thought”.

On what comes next: “There's now five interest rate increases in the system. Now the last couple haven't even started to flow through yet. So it is probably a good point to just take stock for a minute and see what comes in.” Asked whether the RBA was now on hold, she said “I don't know what the next move will be.” (ABC News live coverage, 3 November.)

Who is passing the rise on

All four major banks will lift variable home loan rates by 0.25 percentage points from Friday 13 November (CBA media release, 4 November; Savings.com.au lender tracker, 5 November). ANZ and Westpac confirmed the rise applies to residential investment loans; CBA and NAB announced it for variable home loans without separating investor products. Macquarie moves from 19 November, saying it was “again waiting more than two weeks” to give customers time to prepare (ABC News live coverage).

Canstar estimated before the decision that a rise to 4.85%, fully passed on, would take the average variable rate to about 6.74% for owner-occupiers and 6.97% for investors, with competitive investor rates below 6.70% (Canstar, 2 November). For our worked examples we use two modelled rates rather than market quotes. The RBA's lending-rate data had outstanding investor interest-only loans at 6.57% and new investor variable loans at 6.41% in August (RBA Table F6), before the September and November rises. Adding both rises gives an illustrative 7.10% for an existing interest-only investor loan and 6.90% for a new investor variable loan. Actual rates vary by lender, LVR, borrower and product.

What does the November SoMP say about housing, lending and rents?

Prices and turnover

The RBA's Economic Conditions chapter says national housing prices were 4.7% below their recent peak in September, and that “the current downturn is one of the steepest over the past 50 years, and price declines have broadened to most capital cities”. It lists “auction clearance rates remaining very low, time on market rising sharply to above long-run average levels and housing market turnover declining to low levels”.

The Overview attributes the fall to “higher interest rates and tax changes announced in the federal budget”, and the Outlook chapter says prices “have continued to fall more quickly than expected”. Cotality's October index, released the day before the decision, has the national fall at 6.7% from the March peak.

Investor lending and the tax changes

This is the part of the SoMP most directly about investors. New housing loan commitments “are now 27 per cent below their peak in November 2025”, and “the decline in new lending has been most pronounced for investors and has been concentrated in loans to purchase established dwellings”. The RBA adds: “This is consistent with the recent changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax decreasing the after-tax returns on investments in established housing.”

Housing credit growth has slowed to 6.3% in six-month annualised terms, which the RBA says is “still around its post-GFC average”, with the decline reflecting “a fall in investor credit growth”. It expects credit growth “to decline further over coming months”. The RBA also notes that non-bank housing credit “has accelerated considerably over the past 18 months”, partly because of “less stringent debt servicing tests at some non-banks compared with banks”.

In its risk scenarios, the RBA describes a weaker-activity case that could be “compounded by a tightening in borrowing constraints and incentives for housing investors”. Our reading is that the RBA treats the tax changes and tighter investor finance as amplifying the effect of its rate rises. Our investor lending vs cash rate chart shows how far new investor lending has fallen in this cycle compared with 2022–23.

Household buffers

The SoMP gives little support to a forced-selling story. Scheduled principal and interest payments are “just over 10 per cent of household disposable income”, around their 2024 peak, and “the median borrower in the lowest income quartile has enough savings in offset and redraw accounts to cover around a year's worth of scheduled mortgage payments”. The October Financial Stability Review found fewer than 1% of borrowers in negative equity; our FSR analysis works through how large a fall households could absorb.

Rents and vacancy

The ABS's CPI rents measure, which covers rents paid by all tenants, rose 0.9% in the September quarter and 3.6% over the year (ABS, as cited in the SoMP). The RBA notes that “vacancy rates have increased modestly and growth in advertised rents has slowed”.

Cotality's figures on advertised rents point the same way, though its two series cover different periods. Its quarterly Rental Review (9 October) had national rents up 0.5% in the three months to September and vacancy at 2.1%, the highest since January 2025. Its monthly figures in the Home Value Index release (2 November, p. 3) had rents up a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in the three months to October, the smallest rise since January 2025, and vacancy at 2.3%, the highest since January 2022. The ABS and Cotality figures both happen to be 0.9%, but they measure different things. SQM Research's national vacancy rate, on its own method, was 1.4% in September.

For investors, rent growth has stopped outpacing interest costs, so rising rents won't close the cash-flow gap on their own.

Construction and new supply

The RBA cut its dwelling investment forecast to −2.8% over 2027 and −3.5% in the year to June 2028, against August forecasts near zero. Builders in its liaison program attribute weaker sales “to higher interest rates, tax reforms, and broader economic uncertainty”, and for apartments there is “a significant gap between current market pricing and the price at which most apartments can be profitably built” (Box C).

Our analysis: if completions fall in 2027–28 while population growth holds near 1.2% to 1.3% a year (the SoMP's assumption), rental markets could tighten again late in the forecast period, which would support rents for investors who can hold through the plateau.

What does the fifth hike cost property investors?

Repayments

Source: our calculations; chart: Property Investment Professionals. Interest-only = loan × rate change ÷ 12. P&I uses a 30-year remaining term on our modelled investor rate: 6.90% after this rise, so 6.65% before it and 5.65% before all five rises (6.90% less 0.25 and 1.25 points). Assumes full pass-through to the loan rate; most big-four borrowers see this rise from 13 November.

Our November preview has the full cost tables, including a 50-basis-point case.

After tax, and after July 2027

Interest on an investment loan is deductible, so the after-tax cost depends on your marginal rate and, from July 2027, on when you bought.

Source: our calculations. Marginal rates include the 2% Medicare levy. Assumes the property is negatively geared, so the extra interest increases a deductible loss. Quarantined losses can be used against future rental income or gains from the same class of property (Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026). General information only.

For the 2026–27 income year, the rise is deductible against other income for every investor. From 1 July 2027, for established homes bought after the budget-night cut-off, a higher rate falls fully on cash flow and the tax benefit arrives only when the property makes a profit or is sold.

The 12 May grandfathering applies to negative gearing only. The CGT change reaches every investor whatever the purchase date. For most property held by resident individuals and trusts, the Act deems a sale and reacquisition at market value on 30 June 2027. The gain to that date is deferred until you actually sell and keeps the 50% discount. Growth from 1 July 2027 is taxed on a CPI-indexed cost base, subject to a minimum tax of 30% on those gains; investors on higher marginal rates pay their own rate. Eligible new residential dwellings keep the 50% discount on later growth, with the option of indexation instead. The definition of an eligible new dwelling is still being finalised (see Profile 3 below), so check with your tax adviser before relying on it. Our CGT countdown guide works through the calculation.

Borrowing capacity

APRA expects the banks and other lenders it regulates (ADIs) to assess new loans at no less than the loan rate plus a 3-percentage-point buffer. That is a minimum, and some lenders add more; non-bank lenders aren't bound by it, which the RBA notes below. On our modelled investor rate of 6.90%, the assessment rate is now about 9.90%, from about 9.65% before the decision and 8.65% in January (our estimates).

On a 30-year principal-and-interest assessment with income and expenses held constant, a borrower who could borrow $750,000 at 9.65% can now borrow about $734,000, down 2.1%. Against January, the fall is about 10.4% (from roughly $820,000). That is one illustrative borrower at one modelled rate; the change for any individual depends on the lender's rate, buffer and expense assumptions. Cotality's Tim Lawless put the cycle-to-date fall in borrowing capacity at “around 11.5%, or more than $105,000” if the cash rate rose again (it did the next day), “more than offsetting the approximately $63,400 decline in the national median dwelling value since its March peak” (Cotality, 2 November).

APRA's limit on high debt-to-income lending also applies at the lender level. Since 1 February 2026, no more than 20% of each ADI's new investor lending, and separately 20% of its new owner-occupier lending, can be at a debt-to-income ratio of six or more (APRA). It is a portfolio cap, not a ban on any individual borrowing at six times income, though a bank near its cap may ration those loans. Finance to buy or build a new dwelling and owner-occupier bridging loans are exempt, which matters for investors weighing a new build. Our guide to how much you can borrow works through the assessment in detail.

Interest-only expiry is the bigger shock

For many investors the rate rise matters less than an interest-only period ending. On a $750,000 loan at an illustrative 7.10%, interest-only repayments are about $4,438 a month. Switching to principal and interest over the remaining 25 years lifts that to about $5,349, an extra $911 a month. Against interest-only repayments at January's rates (about $3,656 at 5.85%), the combined jump is about $1,693 a month (our calculations).

About $11,300 of the first year's P&I repayments reduce the loan, so part of the jump is saving rather than cost, but it still comes out of cash flow. Our interest-only vs P&I guide compares the options.

Is 4.85% the peak, and when could interest rates fall?

What the banks and economists expect

Source: as listed; all calls made after the 3 November decision. Base case is the forecaster's central call; stated risk is the alternative it names. Canstar reports NAB and Westpac first cuts from August 2027, but neither bank's own post-decision note gives a date. Market pricing covers the 8 December meeting only, not the chance of no further rises over the year ahead.

The big four now broadly agree on the peak and differ mainly on the risks. CBA's Belinda Allen said “the RBA will remain on edge as we enter 2027 but will ultimately keep rates on hold” (CommBank newsroom, 3 November), and a day later CBA's economists said stronger-than-expected household spending kept the risk of more rises alive. Westpac's Luci Ellis described February as “the next most likely timing for a hike, should one eventuate”.

What the RBA's forecasts imply

The SoMP's forecasts are conditioned on a market path that “increases by 35 basis points by mid-2027, before declining a little to stabilise at 4.8 per cent in 2028”. That was measured from 4.60% on 28 October, so the November rise accounts for most of it. Our reading is that the forecasts assume rates stay near today's level for about two years. A first cut in 2027 would need inflation to fall faster than the RBA expects or unemployment to rise faster.

The RBA's risks point both ways. Inflation risks are “skewed to the upside, despite becoming more balanced since the August Statement”, with an oil scenario near US$100 a barrel keeping underlying inflation around 2¾% by end-2028. Its weaker-activity scenario brings the trimmed mean to 2½% a quarter earlier.

Three rate scenarios for investors

Source: scenario construction is our analysis, based on the RBA's November 2026 SoMP (forecasts and risk scenarios), ANZ (3 November), CBA (3 November) and Betashares (as reported by ABC News, 3 November). Repayment changes are our calculations on an interest-only loan with full pass-through. Not forecasts.

Source: our analysis and calculations, based on the RBA's November 2026 SoMP, ANZ, CBA and Betashares; chart: Property Investment Professionals. Not forecasts.

The signposts that will decide it

The next releases, in order:

1. RBA minutes, Tuesday 17 November. The minutes will show how hard the three holders pushed and whether the six who voted to raise discussed a further rise.
2. ABS Labour Force for October, Thursday 19 November. Unemployment was 4.7% in September (ABS). The RBA forecasts 4.7% for the December quarter; a faster rise would strengthen the case for a long hold or earlier cuts.
3. ABS monthly CPI for October, about Wednesday 25 November. Headline inflation was 4.3% over the year to September (ABS). In our view, a trimmed mean that stays near 3.6% to 3.7% keeps February live.
4. RBA decision, Tuesday 8 December. Markets price a hold.
5. December-quarter CPI, late January 2027, and the RBA decision and SoMP on Tuesday 9 February 2027. This is the meeting most likely to settle whether 4.85% is the peak.

What do higher-for-longer rates mean for property prices and rental cash flow?

Where prices are now

Cotality's Home Value Index fell 1.2% in October, the seventh monthly fall, taking national values 6.7% below the March 2026 peak, about $63,400 on the median dwelling (Cotality, 2 November). The combined capitals index is down 8.1% in seven months, which Cotality says is the fastest decline in at least 40 years; over the same span, the 2022–23 downturn saw a 7.0% fall.

Brisbane (−2.0%) and Perth (−1.7%) overtook Sydney (−1.6%) as the fastest-falling capitals in October. Hobart (+0.5%) and Darwin (+0.6%) were the only capitals to rise. Sydney is 10.1% below its February peak, Brisbane and Perth are more than 8% below theirs, and Melbourne is 8.2% below its March 2022 record (Cotality). Selling conditions have weakened in step: sales over the past three months were 23% below a year earlier, the median time on market reached 39 days (the highest since August 2020) and the vendor discount widened to 4.7% (the largest since May 2019). Our clearance rate vs cash rate chart shows the September-quarter clearance rate (48.7%, Cotality finals) below the 2022 low of 56.4%.

Not every market is falling over the year. In Cotality's SA3 rankings (12 months to October), Perth's Mandurah rose 9.1%, Brisbane's Ipswich Hinterland 7.9% and Adelaide's Gawler–Two Wells 7.3%, while the Goldfields region of WA rose 23.8%. In Sydney, not one of Cotality's top ten SA3 regions recorded an annual gain; the best, Wollondilly, was down 1.4%. Our October Home Value Index analysis covers revisions, equity by purchase date and interest cover by segment, and the Home Value Index tracker has every capital month by month.

What forecasters now expect

CBA cut its house price forecasts again on 3 November. It now expects national dwelling values to fall about 14% from peak to trough, with the five-capital average down about 15%, Brisbane and Perth about 18%, Sydney about 16%, and Melbourne and Adelaide about 13%. It forecasts falls of 8% over 2026 and 3% in 2027, with the market stabilising in the second half of 2027. CBA's Trent Saunders estimates that a 4.85% peak rather than 4.60% “reduces national dwelling price growth in 2027 by around 2 percentage points” (CommBank newsroom, 3 November).

Applied to Cotality's index as a rough guide (our arithmetic; CBA's index and peak dates may differ), a 14% national fall implies about 7.8% more from October's level. The same arithmetic gives about 10% more in Brisbane and Perth and about 7% more in Sydney. Cotality's own outlook is for “a gradual drift lower in housing values rather than a more material downturn”, with risks “skewed to the downside”.

Does rent cover the interest?

Cotality's combined capitals gross yield reached 3.77% in October, the highest since May 2015. Lawless's view is that yields “are still nowhere near the levels needed to deliver a neutral or positive cash flow”.

Source: Cotality Home Value Index, October 2026 (median dwelling values and gross yields); interest and rent share are our calculations at an illustrative 7.10% interest-only rate on an 80% LVR loan; chart: Property Investment Professionals.

Source: Cotality Home Value Index, October 2026 (median dwelling values and gross yields, released 2 November 2026); interest and gaps are our calculations at an illustrative 7.10% interest-only rate on an 80% LVR loan. Gross rent is before vacancy, management, insurance, rates, strata, maintenance and tax, so actual cash flow is weaker than the gap shown.

The break-even gross yield for an 80% interest-only loan is the interest rate × 0.8: about 5.5% at 6.90%, 5.7% at 7.10% and 5.9% at 7.35% (our arithmetic). Darwin's median clears it; no other capital comes close. For a $750,000 interest-only loan, this rise alone costs $36 a week, so rent would have to rise about 5.5% on a $650-a-week property just to absorb one 25-basis-point move. At Cotality's latest pace of 0.9% a quarter, that's about six quarters of rent growth to cover one rate rise.

Cash flow will be weaker than the table shows, because insurance, council rates, strata and maintenance have “all risen substantially over recent years” (Lawless). Treat the gap in the table as the smallest shortfall you're likely to face.

What should property investors do after the November rate hike?

The five profiles below are hypothetical, built to show how the same forecasts lead to different decisions. They're illustrations, not recommendations.

Profile 1: The grandfathered holder with negative cash flow

Situation: two established properties in Sydney and Melbourne bought in 2021 and 2023, $1.3 million of interest-only debt at about 7.10%, about $420 a week negative before tax once all five rises apply. Both were bought before 12 May 2026, so negative gearing continues while they're held.

Reasoning: each further 25 basis points adds about $63 a week before tax. The SoMP's path implies no relief through mid-2027, and CBA's first cut, if it comes, is August 2027. Selling now means selling into a market where Sydney values are 10.1% below their peak and 1.5% below October 2021 levels, and Melbourne's are 7.3% lower than five years ago (Cotality), so after selling costs either sale could lock in a loss. It also gives up the grandfathered treatment, which can't be regained on a replacement established property.

Strategy: confirm that offset savings cover six months of the after-tax shortfall at a 5.10% cash rate. Ask both lenders for a rate review, since many lenders reprice existing loans only when asked. If cash flow is unsustainable, sell the weaker asset rather than both, and run the sale through the Sell or Hold Planner first. Our mortgage stress guide covers restructuring options.

Profile 2: The post-budget buyer of an established home

Situation: bought an established Brisbane house for $980,000 in July 2026 with a $784,000 interest-only loan, contracts signed after the 12 May cut-off. The rent covers about 65% of the interest.

Reasoning: for 2026–27 the loss is deductible against salary. From 1 July 2027 it's quarantined, so the full shortfall falls on cash flow and the deduction is carried forward against future rental profits or the eventual gain. Brisbane is the fastest-falling capital and CBA forecasts about an 18% peak-to-trough fall there. On CGT, the property is deemed sold and reacquired at its 30 June 2027 value. Any gain to that date (possibly none after this year's falls) is deferred to the actual sale and taxed under the existing rules. Later growth is measured from that reset value, indexed for CPI, with the 30% minimum tax.

Strategy: model 2027–28 cash flow now with no tax benefit and a 5.10% cash rate. If the shortfall isn't sustainable from income, the decision on whether to hold is better made before the quarantine starts than after a year of carried-forward losses. Keep records of every quarantined amount, and get a valuation near 30 June 2027, since it sets the reset cost base.

Profile 3: The buyer with pre-approval waiting for the bottom

Situation: $220,000 in savings, a pre-approval issued in August, targeting a Perth or Adelaide house to hold for 10 to 15 years.

Reasoning: the pre-approval was assessed at about 9.40% to 9.65%; at 9.90% the maximum loan falls about 2% to 4% (our calculations). Prices in Perth are 8.9% below their April peak (Cotality) and CBA expects about 18% at the trough, so waiting may buy a lower price. But in past cycles the trough often came as cuts became credible, when competing buyers return. Our September hike analysis covers the historical record.

Strategy: ask the lender to reconfirm the approval at the new rate before bidding. Leave headroom below the maximum, target established suburbs where vendor discounts exceed the 4.7% national figure, and remember that an established home bought now falls under the negative gearing quarantine from July 2027. A newly built dwelling keeps negative gearing and the CGT discount if it meets the definition, which the Tax Reform No. 3 Bill would settle (Senate committee report due 13 November), and finance for a new dwelling sits outside APRA's DTI cap.

Profile 4: The investor whose interest-only period ends in 2027

Situation: a $750,000 interest-only loan on a Melbourne townhouse, interest-only term ending in March 2027, rent of $620 a week.

Reasoning: the switch to principal and interest adds about $911 a month at 7.10% (worked through above). The SoMP path makes a cut before March unlikely.

Strategy: ask for an interest-only extension now, while serviceability is assessed at about 10.10% (7.10% plus the 3-point buffer) rather than possibly higher after February. If the lender declines, compare a refinance, remembering a new lender assesses at its own rate plus at least 3 points. Start paying the extra into offset from December so the switch isn't the first test. Our fixed vs variable guide covers whether fixing part of the loan suits a long hold.

Profile 5: The yield-focused buyer

Situation: $150,000 deposit, looking at regional WA or Darwin, where gross yields are 5.3% to 6.4% (Cotality, October), and the rent would cover the interest from day one.

Reasoning: Darwin is the only capital where the median rent covers interest at 7.10% on an 80% loan, and the Goldfields region and outer-Perth SA3s such as Mandurah are still rising (Cotality). High-yield markets carry concentration risk: smaller tenant pools, resource-cycle exposure and thinner resale markets. Darwin values are only 32.9% higher than 10 years ago, against 58.1% nationally (Cotality).

Strategy: buy the yield as protection against the rate path and don't count on growth. Check local vacancy (SQM publishes it by postcode), the employer base and days on market before buying. Hold a larger cash buffer than in a metro market, because vacancies can last longer.

Decision framework

• Holding through the plateau suits investors who: have a grandfathered property, offset savings covering six months of after-tax costs at 5.10%, a secure income and a holding horizon of seven years or more.
• Selling is worth modelling for investors who: can't fund the shortfall from income, bought established property after 12 May 2026 and face the quarantine, or hold an interest-only loan expiring before 2028 that fails a P&I test. Run the numbers through the Sell or Hold Planner before listing.
• Buying suits investors who: have finance reconfirmed at 9.90%, buy below recent comparable sales, can carry the property with no rate cut before late 2027, and understand which tax rules apply to the dwelling they're buying.

Risks and how to manage them

Source: RBA, Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026; Betashares (ABC News, 3 November); CBA (3 November). Mitigations are our analysis.

Dates to watch

• Friday 13 November: big-four variable rate rises take effect; Senate Economics Committee report on the Tax Reform No. 3 Bill.
• Tuesday 17 November: minutes of the 2–3 November meeting.
• Thursday 19 November: ABS Labour Force, October.
• About Wednesday 25 November: ABS monthly CPI, October.
• Tuesday 1 December: Cotality Home Value Index, November.
• Tuesday 8 December, 2:30pm AEDT: RBA decision.
• Tuesday 9 February 2027: RBA decision and Statement on Monetary Policy.

The Bottom Line

Our reading of the November decision and forecasts is that the RBA expects to hold rates high for a long time rather than keep raising, with the October and December-quarter CPI releases deciding whether February is live. For investors, three pressures now overlap: repayments that won't fall soon, rents that have stopped outpacing interest, and from July 2027 a tax regime that treats established purchases since budget night differently. Together they are the reason to plan each property's 2027–28 cash flow now and to run any property that fails it through the Sell or Hold Planner before a decision is forced. Our CPI analysis covers the inflation detail behind the decision.