Auctions are weaker this hiking cycle
Combined capital city auction clearance rate (Cotality, final basis) against the RBA cash rate, 2018 to 2026. Data as at September quarter 2026 (clearance).
Quick answer
Clearance rates have fallen further in 2026 than in the last hiking cycle: from 65.0% to 48.7% in three quarters, below the 2022 low of 56.4%. Last time they recovered to 68.5% by mid-2023 while the cash rate was still rising.
The data (35 quarters)
| Quarter | Clearance rate (%) | Cash rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep qtr 2026 | 48.7% | 4.60% |
| Jun qtr 2026 | 49.4% | 4.35% |
| Mar qtr 2026 | 60.8% | 4.10% |
| Dec qtr 2025 | 65.0% | 3.60% |
| Sep qtr 2025 | 69.2% | 3.60% |
| Jun qtr 2025 | 63.3% | 3.85% |
| Mar qtr 2025 | 62.2% | 4.10% |
| Dec qtr 2024 | 58.3% | 4.35% |
| Sep qtr 2024 | 63.4% | 4.35% |
| Jun qtr 2024 | 65.3% | 4.35% |
| Mar qtr 2024 | 67.6% | 4.35% |
| Dec qtr 2023 | 62.4% | 4.35% |
| Sep qtr 2023 | 65.8% | 4.10% |
| Jun qtr 2023 | 68.5% | 4.10% |
| Mar qtr 2023 | 65.3% | 3.60% |
| Dec qtr 2022 | 57.8% | 3.10% |
| Sep qtr 2022 | 56.4% | 2.35% |
| Jun qtr 2022 | 60.8% | 0.85% |
| Mar qtr 2022 | 69.9% | 0.10% |
| Dec qtr 2021 | 71.3% | 0.10% |
| Sep qtr 2021 | 71.7% | 0.10% |
| Jun qtr 2021 | 75.7% | 0.10% |
| Mar qtr 2021 | 80.0% | 0.10% |
| Dec qtr 2020 | 69.4% | 0.10% |
| Sep qtr 2020 | 59.2% | 0.25% |
| Jun qtr 2020 | 47.9% | 0.25% |
| Mar qtr 2020 | 62.5% | 0.25% |
| Dec qtr 2019 | 70.3% | 0.75% |
| Sep qtr 2019 | 69.9% | 1.00% |
| Jun qtr 2019 | 55.5% | 1.25% |
| Mar qtr 2019 | 49.9% | 1.50% |
| Dec qtr 2018 | 43.6% | 1.50% |
| Sep qtr 2018 | 53.6% | 1.50% |
| Jun qtr 2018 | 57.8% | 1.50% |
| Mar qtr 2018 | 64.6% | 1.50% |
Shaded: rate-hiking periods. From 2023, averages of Cotality weekly final results (March and June quarters 2026 from 4 and 8 weeks). 2020 dip: COVID auction bans. Source: Cotality auction clearance rates (final); RBA cash rate target. Data as at September quarter 2026 (clearance).
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