Did rate rises stop prices last time?
Mean price of Australian residential dwellings ($'000) against the RBA cash rate, 2018 to 2026. Data as at June quarter 2026 (prices).
Quick answer
In 2022 the mean dwelling price fell 4.3% in two quarters as the cash rate climbed from 0.10% to 2.35%, then passed its old peak by late 2023 with rates at 4.35%. It slipped 0.7% in the June quarter 2026, its first fall larger than 0.1% since 2022.
The data (35 quarters)
| Quarter | Mean dwelling price ($'000) | Cash rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep qtr 2026 | – | 4.60% |
| Jun qtr 2026 | $1,100k | 4.35% |
| Mar qtr 2026 | $1,109k | 4.10% |
| Dec qtr 2025 | $1,093k | 3.60% |
| Sep qtr 2025 | $1,051k | 3.60% |
| Jun qtr 2025 | $1,030k | 3.85% |
| Mar qtr 2025 | $1,008k | 4.10% |
| Dec qtr 2024 | $1,003k | 4.35% |
| Sep qtr 2024 | $983k | 4.35% |
| Jun qtr 2024 | $982k | 4.35% |
| Mar qtr 2024 | $962k | 4.35% |
| Dec qtr 2023 | $949k | 4.35% |
| Sep qtr 2023 | $925k | 4.10% |
| Jun qtr 2023 | $915k | 4.10% |
| Mar qtr 2023 | $891k | 3.60% |
| Dec qtr 2022 | $891k | 3.10% |
| Sep qtr 2022 | $891k | 2.35% |
| Jun qtr 2022 | $921k | 0.85% |
| Mar qtr 2022 | $931k | 0.10% |
| Dec qtr 2021 | $917k | 0.10% |
| Sep qtr 2021 | $866k | 0.10% |
| Jun qtr 2021 | $814k | 0.10% |
| Mar qtr 2021 | $778k | 0.10% |
| Dec qtr 2020 | $739k | 0.10% |
| Sep qtr 2020 | $707k | 0.25% |
| Jun qtr 2020 | $689k | 0.25% |
| Mar qtr 2020 | $695k | 0.25% |
| Dec qtr 2019 | $687k | 0.75% |
| Sep qtr 2019 | $669k | 1.00% |
| Jun qtr 2019 | $649k | 1.25% |
| Mar qtr 2019 | $646k | 1.50% |
| Dec qtr 2018 | $661k | 1.50% |
| Sep qtr 2018 | $672k | 1.50% |
| Jun qtr 2018 | $681k | 1.50% |
| Mar qtr 2018 | $688k | 1.50% |
Shaded: rate-hiking periods. The ABS series runs to June 2026; Cotality's index shows national values down 6.7% from March to October 2026. Source: ABS Total Value of Dwellings; RBA cash rate target. Data as at June quarter 2026 (prices).
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General information only, not financial advice.
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