Stock Piles Up: Listings Hit a Five-Year High as Homes Take Longer to Sell

The combined capitals cleared a preliminary 51.5% on 1,734 auctions, up from 47.2% on 1,735 on Melbourne Cup weekend and the highest preliminary since 20 September (54.0%). Of 1,235 results collected, 643 sold and 592 did not (Cotality). Cotality had 1,826 auctions scheduled. The same weekend last year 71.8% of 3,136 auctions cleared, so volume is about 45% lower and the clearance rate 20.3 points lower.

Cotality's final figure for last weekend (1 November) was 40.7% on 1,713, 6.5 points below its preliminary 47.2% and the lowest final since mid-April 2020 (30.2%). It was the seventh straight week with a final below 50%. The combined final last exceeded 60% in early March and is 25.7 points below this year's high of 66.4% (Cotality). On recent gaps between preliminary and final figures, this weekend's final is likely to land in the mid-40s.

City by city

Melbourne cleared 59.1% on 612 auctions (273 sold, 189 not), the best of the capitals and its highest preliminary since 13 September, as the book recovered after the Carnival; last weekend finalised at 44.3% on 517. A year ago Melbourne cleared 72.8% on 1,432.

Sydney cleared 52.3% on 709 (269 sold, 245 not), down from a preliminary 53.8% on 731; last weekend finalised at 45.1%, the highest final of any capital. A year ago Sydney cleared 70.0% on 1,198.

Brisbane cleared 31.2% on 178 (34 of 109 results), up from 26.2%; last weekend finalised at 23.8%, the fifth straight week below 30%, and a year ago 77.8% of 215 cleared. Adelaide eased to 43.5% on 149 (37 of 85), against 78.2% a year ago; it was the only capital with more auctions scheduled than both last week and a year ago. Canberra rose to 47.2% on 68 (25 of 53) from 38.9%, against 63.8% a year ago. Perth sold 4 of 11 results on 17 auctions, and Tasmania 1 of 1.

My Housing Market, which counts the week to Saturday, read the national rate at 45.6% (44.8% the week before, 67.7% a year ago). It had Sydney at 52.7% on 964 auctions (houses 49.9%, units 64.0%) with a house auction median of $1,787,500, 8.7% lower than a year ago, and Melbourne at 62.1% on 629 (houses 58.7%, units 80.5%) with a house median of $1,000,000, 9.7% lower. Cotality expects about 1,900 auctions next weekend.

Prices: Cotality's October index

Cotality's national Home Value Index fell 1.2% in October, the seventh straight monthly fall, leaving values 3.9% lower over three months, 2.8% lower over the year and 6.7% below the March peak, with a national median of $884,855. The combined capitals fell 1.4% and are 8.1% below their March peak, the fastest seven-month fall in 40 years on Cotality's measure and a tenth of a point short of the 2017–19 record (-8.2%). The combined regionals fell 0.7% but are still 3.4% higher over the year.

By capital, Brisbane fell 2.0% ($1,018,401), Perth 1.7% ($942,018), Sydney 1.6% ($1,178,959), Adelaide 1.2% ($916,860), Melbourne 0.8% ($773,027) and Canberra 0.7% ($844,400), while Darwin (+0.6%, $641,873) and Hobart (+0.5%, $743,854) rose. Over the year Sydney is down 9.4%, Melbourne 7.6% and Canberra 3.7%; Darwin (+9.7%), Hobart (+5.5%), Perth (+3.9%), Adelaide (+3.7%) and Brisbane (+0.4%) are still higher. Sydney is 10.1% below its February peak, the deepest of any capital. Houses fell faster than units nationally (-1.4% against -0.8%), with the widest gap in Sydney (-1.9% and -0.7%) (Cotality).

Listings and asking prices

National listings rose 8.8% in October to 301,201, the highest in more than five years and 19.3% above October 2025. New listings rose 8.0% for the month but were 1.2% lower than a year ago, while listings on the market for 30 to 180 days rose 11.0% to 130,118, 41.1% more than a year ago. Melbourne (51,264) and Canberra (5,548) set records on SQM's series, and Brisbane (+44.2%) and Adelaide (+43.8%) had the largest annual rises. Hobart (-2.3%) is the only capital with less stock than a year ago. SQM's weekly asking price index for the week to 3 November had combined asking prices 0.4% lower over the month and 1.2% higher over the year, with Brisbane down 2.1% for the month and Darwin up 3.7% (SQM Research).

The RBA raised the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday 3 November, the fifth rise of 2026 and the highest cash rate since late 2008. Six members voted for the rise and three to hold. The Board replaced September's commitment to raise "further if needed" with a pledge to be "attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks" (RBA). The next decision is Tuesday 8 December, and markets priced a 97% chance of no change at that meeting at the 5 November close (ASX).

The new forecasts

The November Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts headline inflation peaking at 4.5% in the December quarter and the trimmed mean back inside the 2–3% band only by late 2027 (2.9% in December 2027), about three quarters later than in August. Those forecasts assume a cash rate of about 4.9% in mid-2027. Unemployment, 4.7% in September (ABS), is forecast to reach 5.1% by late 2028. The RBA describes the housing downturn as "one of the steepest over the past 50 years" and links the fall in investor lending for established homes partly to the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes (RBA).

What it means for borrowing

The big four pass the rise on from Friday 13 November and Macquarie from 19 November. On our model the rise adds about $156 a month to a $750,000 interest-only investor loan, and the five 2026 rises together about $781. Canstar estimated before the decision that full pass-through would take the average investor variable rate to about 6.97%. Cotality estimates that a median-income household can now borrow about $88,000 (12%) less than at the start of the year. CommBank's economists now forecast a national peak-to-trough fall of about 14%, with Sydney about 16% and Brisbane and Perth about 18%. We keep testing purchases at 7.25%, one further rise above a typical new investor variable loan once this rise is passed on.

SQM's September print, the latest, put national vacancy at 1.4%, up from 1.3% in August and 1.2% a year ago, on 42,290 vacant rentals, 17% more than a year earlier. Melbourne and Canberra (1.9%) and Sydney (1.8%) are the loose end, while Brisbane (0.9%), Perth and Adelaide (0.6%), Darwin (0.6%) and Hobart (0.5%) remain under 1%. The October figures are due mid-month.

Rent growth is slowing

Cotality's own October measures point the same way. Its national vacancy rate rose to 2.3%, the highest since January 2022, and rents rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% over the three months to October, the smallest rise since January 2025 (Cotality). The two vacancy series use different methods, so the levels aren't comparable, but both are rising. Annual house rent growth on Cotality's figures ranges from 3.8% in Canberra to 11.1% in Darwin, and unit rents from 1.7% in Canberra to 11.7% in Darwin. Cotality puts the national gross yield at 3.9% and the combined capitals at 3.77%, the highest since May 2015, but still well short of the level needed for neutral cash flow at today's rates.

Rent cover after the November rise

Gross rent on an 80% interest-only loan covers well under the interest bill in every large capital at today's rates, and the November rise widens the gap. The markets where rent does most of the work are the regional and Darwin entries on our October Top 10, where our stress test has rent covering interest at 7.25% for five of the ten units and four of the ten houses. With listings rising and rent growth slowing, underwrite each purchase on its current rent rather than on further rises.

National listings rose 8.8% in October to 301,201, the most in more than five years and 19.3% more than a year ago (SQM Research). Melbourne (51,264) and Canberra (5,548) reached the highest totals on SQM's records. New listings were 1.2% lower than a year ago, so the rise comes from homes that aren't selling.

Stock is ageing

Listings that have been on the market for 30 to 180 days rose to 130,118, 41.1% more than a year ago, and account for close to four-fifths of the annual increase in total listings. Stock listed for more than 180 days is 16.2% higher. The pattern is clearest in Melbourne, where new listings are 5.2% lower than a year ago while 30-to-180-day stock is up 47%, and in Canberra, where new listings are 16.7% lower and that stock is up 52%. Brisbane (+44.2%) and Adelaide (+43.8%) have the largest annual rises in total stock, and both had values still rising in autumn. Hobart is the exception, the only capital with less stock than a year ago (-2.3%). (Listings: SQM Research.)

Why homes are slower to sell

Buyers have less to spend. Cotality estimates that after five rate rises a median-income household can borrow about $88,000 (12%) less than in January, and repayments on the average owner-occupier loan are about $600 a month higher. Sales over the three months to October were 23% below a year earlier, homes took a median 39 days to sell and the average vendor discount widened to 4.7%, the largest since May 2019 (Cotality). Tuesday's rise to 4.85% adds to the squeeze, and the big four pass it on from 13 November.

Distress is rising from a low base

Distressed listings rose 10.2% in October to 5,368, the highest since late 2024 and 42.3% more than a year earlier. Growth is fastest in South Australia (+84.9% over the year), Western Australia (+75.8%) and Queensland (+71.2%), and Queensland's 1,904 are the most of any state. Every state now has more than a year ago, but distressed stock is still about 1.8% of all listings, far below the more than 12,000 recorded in late 2020 (SQM Research). In our view the rises are concentrated where prices climbed most recently, which would fit buyers who stretched to get in during 2025 more than broad forced selling. The RBA's November Statement on Monetary Policy found that the median borrower in the lowest income quartile still holds about a year of scheduled repayments in offset and redraw accounts.

What it means for you

If you're buying, aged stock is where you can negotiate. A vendor whose home has sat for two months or more has already seen what buyers will offer, so ask the agent how long it has been listed and what offers it has had, and price your offer from recent sales rather than the asking price. Asking prices are already easing. SQM's index had combined asking prices down 2.1% over the month in Brisbane and 0.7% in Sydney and Perth (week to 3 November). If you may need to sell in 2027, more competing stock means a longer campaign and less room to hold out, so plan the sale with time to spare rather than against a deadline. And keep testing every purchase at 7.25%.

What would change our view

A jump in new listings would mean vendors have stopped waiting, which would put more pressure on prices. A fall in 30-to-180-day stock that comes from sales rather than withdrawals would show buyers absorbing the backlog. SQM's November figures, due in early December, will show which way it is going.

The week ahead

Thursday 12 November: Cotality's final clearance rates for this weekend. Friday 13 November: the big four's variable rates rise 0.25 points. Mid-month: SQM Research's October vacancy figures. Saturday 14 November: about 1,900 auctions expected across the capitals (Cotality). ABS labour force figures for October follow on Thursday 19 November.