Tipped to Double by 2036? What PropTrack's Suburb Projections Actually Say

The combined capitals cleared a preliminary 51.2% on 1,423 auctions, up from 48.8% on 1,781 a week earlier and the first preliminary print above 50% in three weeks. Of 1,084 results collected, 563 sold and 521 did not. Volume fell 20% on the week and came in below the 1,501 Cotality had scheduled; against the same weekend last year, when 2,662 homes went to auction and 73.8% cleared, volume is 46.5% lower and the clearance rate 22.6 points lower.

Last week's preliminary 48.8% has finalised at 44.1% on 1,749, the lowest final since late June and 1.3 points below the previous week's 45.4%; the combined final has now fallen four weeks running, against 68.2% a year ago. By city, last week's finals were Melbourne 49.8% on 703, Sydney 45.6% on 632, Adelaide 44.9% on 138, Canberra 38.5% on 65 and Brisbane 21.8% on 197, with Perth clearing three of 14. Finals through the spring have landed 3 to 5 points below the preliminary read, so expect this weekend to settle in the high 40s.

The city picture

Melbourne cleared 56.2% on 500 auctions (231 of 411 results), up from 54.8% but on 29% fewer auctions than the 707 a week earlier and 57% fewer than the 1,168 a year ago, when 74.4% cleared. This was the first full weekend of Victoria's reserve price disclosure rules, which began on 1 October with a two-week grace period that ended on Thursday 15 October: agents must obtain the vendor's reserve in writing and publish it at least seven days before an auction, and a changed reserve restarts the seven days. Vendors can still sell above or below the published figure once bidding starts. Across Victoria's early results, 206 homes sold, 102 passed in and 63 were withdrawn, and some agents expect more vendors to choose private sale. Cotality expects around 1,900 auctions across the capitals next weekend, so the next fortnight is a cleaner test of whether disclosure is keeping Melbourne vendors away.

Sydney cleared 54.6% on 574 (242 of 443 results), up from 52.9% on 653 but against 688 scheduled and 1,082 a year ago (74.5%). On My Housing Market's count Sydney houses cleared 53.2% and units 73.9%, and the median auction price for a house was $1.665 million, 15% lower than a year ago. Canberra was the strongest capital at 65.9% on 52, up from 36.4% and level with a year ago (66.2%). Brisbane lifted to 31.5% on 164 from 21.4%, which had been its lowest preliminary since April 2020, against 70.7% a year ago. Adelaide slipped to 36.4% on 119 from 46.8% (77.4% a year ago), and Perth sold four of 11 reported results. Tasmania's single auction did not sell. My Housing Market's national read is 46.5%, up from 44.4%, against 68.1% a year ago.

Values into mid-October

Cotality's daily index shows the five-capital aggregate 4.3% lower over the past three months and 3.4% lower over the year to mid-October. Sydney and Perth are both down 4.8% over three months, Brisbane 4.5%, Melbourne 3.1% and Adelaide 3.0%; over the year, Sydney is down 8.3% and Melbourne 7.1% while Perth (+7.3%), Adelaide (+5.5%) and Brisbane (+3.4%) remain higher. The September index left national values 5.2% below the March peak at a median of $899,236. The October result is due on Monday 2 November.

The supply side keeps building. Over the four weeks to 11 October, new listings were 7.9% lower than a year ago but total listings were 19.1% higher, with Perth up 64.7% and Brisbane 60.4%. Capital-city homes took a median 39 days to sell, against 23 a year ago, and the median vendor discount reached 4.4%, the largest in five years. Estimated national sales in September were 20.9% below a year earlier.

The cash rate is 4.60%, and the next decision is at 2:30pm on Tuesday 3 November. The two releases of the week pulled in opposite directions.

The minutes

The minutes of the 28-29 September meeting, published on Tuesday, recorded a unanimous decision to raise the cash rate by 25 points. Members judged excess demand "greater than previously assessed" and saw "an increase in the risk of persistently elevated inflation", with oil prices well above the August assumptions. They gave a hold only brief consideration, judging the downside risks, including larger effects from falling house prices, "insufficient". On housing, the Board noted that the cumulative fall in prices "is likely to be greater than had been assumed in the August forecasts", that new loan commitments had fallen sharply, led by investors, and that fewer than 2% of owner-occupier borrowers faced a cash-flow shortfall. It will act, "including increasing the cash rate target further if required".

The jobs data

Thursday's labour force release went the other way. Unemployment rose 0.1 points to 4.7%, employment fell 39,300 against expectations of a 20,000 rise, and participation slipped 0.2 points to 66.8%; part-time employment fell 73,700 while full-time rose 34,400. Victoria's rate is 5.1%, NSW's 4.7% and Queensland's 4.5%. The ABS cautioned that its method change may still be affecting the seasonally adjusted series, and trend unemployment held at 4.6%. After the release, reported market pricing for a November rise fell from roughly 25-35% to below 20%.

The calls

Westpac and ANZ still expect a fifth rise to 4.85% on 3 November, ANZ with less conviction after the jobs data; CBA and NAB expect a hold, though CBA calls November "very much live" and expects the trimmed mean to rise 1.0% in the September quarter. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks on Tuesday 21 October, and the September-quarter CPI on Wednesday 28 October is the decider. The ABS August monthly CPI had headline inflation at 4.0% and the trimmed mean at 3.6%.

State policy

Victoria's new rental rules took effect on 13 October: landlords and agents can no longer charge application or rent-payment fees, must notify and evidence bond claims, must keep records showing the property met the minimum standards, and must arrange gas and electrical safety checks every two years in every rental, not only agreements since March 2021. The Victorian Government also announced absentee owner surcharge relief for developers building affordable housing, with the state election on 28 November and caretaker mode from 3 November. In NSW, the Treasurer has pledged that a trust electing into the federal transitional regime will not trigger stamp duty if Labor is re-elected in March.

What it means for investors: keep testing every purchase at 25 points above today's rate until the CPI lands, and if you hold Victorian rentals, check the two-yearly safety checks and your bond-claim process now.

SQM's September print put national vacancy at 1.4%, up from 1.3% in August and 1.2% a year ago, on 42,290 vacant rentals, 17% more than a year earlier. Melbourne and Canberra (1.9%) and Sydney (1.8%) are the loose end; Sydney rose from 1.7% and its vacancies are 39% higher than a year ago, while Canberra eased from 2.1%. Brisbane (0.9%), Perth and Adelaide (0.6%), Darwin (0.6%, from 0.4%) and Hobart (0.5%) remain under 1%.

Houses and units split

Over the 30 days to 12 October, national house asking rents rose 1.6% while unit rents fell 1.6%, and unit rents fell in seven of the eight capitals. In Sydney, house rents rose 2.3% to $1,159 a week and unit rents fell 1.0% to $749; Melbourne units fell 1.3% to $594, Adelaide units 1.9% to $548, and Hobart units 5.4% to $549. Over twelve months, combined asking rents are 7.6% higher nationally and 5.1% higher across the capitals: Darwin +13.9% ($735), Hobart +9.5% ($601), Brisbane +7.2% ($754), Melbourne +5.7% ($692), Perth +5.0% ($796), Canberra +4.8% ($686), Sydney +4.5% ($916) and Adelaide +4.5% ($648).

Yields and interest cover

On Cotality's September yields (national 3.85%, the highest since August 2019), gross rent on an 80% interest-only loan at an illustrative 6.75% covers about 63% of interest in Sydney, 65% in Brisbane, 67% in Adelaide, 74% in Perth, 76% in Melbourne and 81% in Hobart and Canberra, before vacancy, management, insurance, rates and strata; only Darwin, at 6.5%, clears it. With unit rents now easing, the yield on Melbourne and Perth units (5.2%) depends on holding those rents, so check the latest asking-rent evidence for the building before you rely on it.

Tipped to double by 2036? What PropTrack's suburb projections actually say

Friday's property pages carried the same promise in six versions: suburbs across Australia "tipped to double in value by 2036", Sydney houses under $1 million set to "vanish", Melbourne suburbs in line for six-figure gains. We downloaded the table behind them, PropTrack trajectories for 4,673 suburbs by property type, valued at September 2026 and projected to 2031 and 2036. The table is more useful than the headlines, and more cautious.

What the table is

The method note is one line: trajectories "are based on the 20-year historical growth rates, adjusted for the suburb's recent 5-year price momentum", with suburbs under 100 dwellings left out. PropTrack's economist describes the figures as illustrating "historical trends, rather than predicting where prices would actually land". It is a projection of the past, so it carries the past's conditions with it, including the 2020 to 2022 boom, when the cash rate sat at 0.10%. The published table also omits suburbs whose name exists in more than one place, such as Richmond, Kingston and Woodridge, so the counts below are of the table as published.

What the headlines skipped

Only 20 of the 4,673 rows double by 2036, all houses: 11 in South Australia, four in Queensland, three in Western Australia and two in Tasmania. No unit market doubles. The median house suburb rises from $953,000 to $1.572 million, 61.6% over ten years or 4.92% a year; the median unit suburb rises from $703,000 to $1.046 million, 46.2% or 3.87% a year. By capital, the median house trajectory runs from 6.1% a year in Adelaide and 6.0% in Brisbane to 5.0% in Perth, 4.8% in Sydney, 4.6% in Hobart, 4.3% in Melbourne and 3.6% in Canberra; for units, from 5.7% in Brisbane and 5.2% in Adelaide to 3.2% in Melbourne and 2.6% in Canberra.

Why the leaders lead

Two features drive the top of the table. The first is timing. In 88% of rows the growth rate implied for 2031 to 2036 is higher than for 2026 to 2031, so the 2036 figure leans on a late acceleration. The median house suburb grows 4.5% a year to 2031 and about 5.3% a year after it. The second is momentum. Adjusting for the last five years lifts the suburbs that ran hardest since 2021, which were often the cheapest in Adelaide and Brisbane. Elizabeth Vale, the top capital-city row, goes from $682,000 to $1.55 million; it needs 6.9% a year to 2031 and then 10.2% a year to 2036. The Elizabeth suburbs fill the top of the Adelaide list, Wulkuraka, Inala and Eagleby lead Brisbane's table, and Gagebrook and Herdsmans Cove on Hobart's northern edge each more than double.

Year one is already off course

Every trajectory starts from September 2026 and assumes growth from there. National values are 5.2% below the March peak and still falling, and NAB's 11% peak-to-trough call implies about 5% more for the capitals before a floor in mid-2027. If the median house suburb falls 5% before turning, it needs about 6.3% a year for the following nine years to reach its 2036 figure, a pace the median suburb has not been projected to sustain.

The investor arithmetic

For a geared buyer the projection matters because growth has to cover the gap that rent leaves. Take an illustrative 6.75% investor rate on an 80% interest-only loan (interest of 5.4% of the property's value), the national gross yield of 3.85%, and holding costs of about 1.3% of value for rates, insurance, management, maintenance and vacancy. The property breaks even at about 2.85% a year of growth, before tax. At the median house trajectory of 4.92% the return is about 2.1% of value a year, roughly 8% a year on a 20% deposit plus purchase costs. At half that growth the return turns slightly negative. The median unit trajectory of 3.87% clears break-even by about one point on the same assumptions, though unit yields are usually higher than the national figure. For an established dwelling bought after 12 May 2026, the enacted reform quarantines rental losses from 1 July 2027, so the shortfall is carried forward rather than deducted against salary.

What we would do with it

Use the trajectory as the upside case and underwrite on half of it. Check where a suburb's number comes from. If its five-year rate sits well above its 20-year rate, it is being projected on a recent boom. Prefer suburbs where rent covers most of the interest, so the purchase works if growth is ordinary. Negotiate the entry price hard as well. National listings are 19% higher than a year ago and capital-city homes take a median 39 days to sell, and a discount won at purchase is locked in from the first day, which projected growth never is.

We have stored the full table for future suburb work, alongside our own monthly suburb rankings, which score current vacancy, yield and catalysts rather than extrapolated growth. The Melbourne and Sydney rankings publish this week.

What would change our view: a run of monthly index rises before mid-2027, which would put the trajectories back on course from a higher base, or a cash rate cut path that brings investor rates back under 6%, which would lower the break-even growth rate by about 0.6 points for every 0.75 points off the rate.

The week ahead

Tuesday 21 October: Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks, a week before the CPI. Thursday 22 October: Cotality's final clearance rate for this weekend, and our Melbourne and Sydney suburb rankings go live. Saturday 24 October: around 1,900 auctions are scheduled across the capitals, a second test of Victoria's disclosure rules on a bigger book. Wednesday 28 October: the September-quarter CPI, the main input into the 3 November decision. Victoria enters caretaker mode on 3 November ahead of the 28 November election.