Suburbs Tipped to Double by 2036: Which Will Stall, and Where Values Could Slip
Published 14 November 2026 · PropTrack suburb projections to 2036, published by realestate.com.au on 16 October 2026 · PropTrack September-quarter 2026 suburb values · Cotality Home Value Index, October 2026 results (released 2 November) · RBA cash rate 4.85% (3 November) · Analysis reflects information available as at 12 November 2026
On 16 October, realestate.com.au built six property stories on one PropTrack table, led by the claim that suburbs across Australia are “tipped to double in value by 2036”. The table projects each suburb's median value to September 2031 and September 2036. In the 4,673 suburb and property-type rows PropTrack published, 20 double by 2036, all of them houses.
PropTrack's economist Angus Moore said the figures “illustrated historical trends, rather than predicting where prices would actually land” (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026). Since the September base, the cash rate has risen to 4.85% (RBA, 3 November) and Cotality's national index has fallen for a seventh month, to 6.7% below the March peak (Cotality, 2 November). We took the analysis further: which suburbs double, which stall or trail inflation, and what our stress tests show when we add a further fall, today's investor rates and the latest quarter's momentum. PropTrack published no negative projections, so every “backwards” finding below is our scenario.
At a Glance: The 2036 Suburb Projections in Brief
- Doublers: in the rows PropTrack published, 20 double by 2036, all houses: 11 in Adelaide, 3 in Brisbane, 2 in Hobart, 2 in regional WA, 1 in Perth and 1 in regional Queensland (PropTrack, 16 October 2026). realestate.com.au's Queensland story names more, including Woodridge and Kingston, whose names are shared with other suburbs and aren't in the published table.
- Already turning: 16 of the 18 published doublers that appear in PropTrack's September-quarter suburb table fell over those three months (PropTrack).
- Typical suburb: the median house trajectory is 4.92% a year and the median unit trajectory 3.87% (our analysis of PropTrack's trajectories).
- Stale: 313 of PropTrack's trajectories run under 3% a year in nominal terms (our test, not a PropTrack category), and 263 of them are units. Canberra units are the extreme, with 35 of 41 stale.
- Below the RBA's target midpoint: 123 PropTrack trajectories grow more slowly than 2.5% a year (our test). They would fall in real terms if inflation averages the midpoint; actual real growth depends on inflation over the holding period.
- Backwards (our stress test): if values fall a further 8% before PropTrack's growth resumes, 120 rows, mostly units, are still below their September 2026 value in 2031.
- Break-even (our analysis on Cotality's October yields): at an illustrative 7.10% rate, an 80% interest-only holder needs about 3.48% a year of growth on a typical capital-city house and 2.78% on a typical unit. On each market's own yield, 179 trajectories fall short, 63 of them Sydney units.
What do PropTrack's 2036 suburb projections actually say?
Quick answer
They are trend extensions, which PropTrack calls trajectories. PropTrack takes each suburb's 20-year historical growth rate, adjusts it for the last five years of price momentum and projects its September 2026 median value to 2031 and 2036. The published table covers 4,673 suburb and property-type rows; suburb names shared by more than one location are not in it.
How the trajectories are built
The method note under PropTrack's table is one sentence: “Trajectories are based on the 20-year historical growth rates, adjusted for the suburb's recent 5-year price momentum.” Suburbs with fewer than 100 dwellings are excluded and there are no Northern Territory rows. The starting point is PropTrack's September 2026 median value for each suburb and property type, rounded to the nearest $1,000.
The exact formula isn't published. The national story says the modelling incorporates “the current downturn”. That fits the numbers, which hold growth back in the first five years and let it run faster in the second five.
The caveats in the source stories
realestate.com.au's Queensland story said: “The projections assume historical growth trends continue and are not guaranteed forecasts of future prices.” In the same story, Ray White AKG's Avi Khan said: “A lot of that growth will come from new homes replacing old ones, not just the same brick-and-tile house doubling in value” (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026).
The late-acceleration effect
In 88% of rows, the growth rate implied for 2031 to 2036 is faster than the rate from 2026 to 2031 (our analysis of PropTrack's figures). Taking each half separately, the median house row grows 4.51% a year to 2031 and about 5.69% after it; for units the medians are 3.34% and about 4.56%. A 2036 figure leans on the back half of the decade, so anyone who sells or refinances in 2031 is relying on the slower half.
How Fast PropTrack's Trajectories Grow: Houses vs Units
Number of suburb rows by annual growth rate to 2036 (rates rounded to two decimals; bands are half-open, so 3.00% sits in 3–4%). Houses cluster at 4% to 6% a year; units sit lower, and 263 of the 313 rows under 3% are units.
Source: PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026); banding is our analysis.
What the table leaves out
- No rates, supply or tax inputs. The 20-year window includes a record-low cash rate (0.10% from November 2020); it is now 4.85%. Nothing adjusts for the negative gearing and CGT changes that start on 1 July 2027.
- Shared suburb names. Names that exist in more than one location, such as Richmond, Kingston and Woodridge, aren't in the published table. realestate.com.au's Queensland story put Woodridge top of its list (“almost 110 per cent from $781,000 to $1.64 million by 2036”) and named Kingston, One Mile and Leichhardt as doublers too, so PropTrack's full model has more doublers than the 20 counted here. Our counts cover the suburbs PropTrack published.
Important: a trajectory grows from PropTrack's September 2026 value. Cotality's index fell another 1.6% in Sydney and 2.0% in Brisbane in October (Cotality, 2 November), and PropTrack's national index fell 0.3% (PropTrack Home Price Index, 2 November), so today's price may already be below the base in some suburbs.
How do the trajectory groups compare?
Quick answer
The published table splits into a small group of doublers (20 rows, all houses), a near-double group of 88, a large middle growing about 4% to 6% a year, and a stale tail of 313 rows under 3% a year that is mostly units. Which group a suburb sits in should change how much of its projected growth you rely on.
Read the table as a guide to conditions. A stale unit can suit an income buyer, and a doubler can lose money for a buyer who overpays.
| Group (test) | Rows | What the trajectory assumes | Main risk | Fits when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doubles (≥2× by 2036) | 20 | 7.2%+ a year for ten years, mostly cheaper houses that boomed after 2020 | 16 of 18 matched rows fell over the September quarter | The purchase still works at half the projected growth |
| Near-double (90–99%) | 88 | 6.6% to 7.2% a year; Brisbane 39, Adelaide 29 | Same momentum risk | As above, and the price is negotiated below recent sales |
| Typical house (median) | 3,197 houses | 4.92% a year; 4.51% to 2031, faster after | Relies on years 6–10 | You plan to hold 10+ years and can fund the shortfall |
| Typical unit (median) | 1,476 units | 3.87% a year | Thin margin over break-even at today's rates | Yield is the main reason you're buying |
| Stale (<3% a year) | 313 | Little real growth; 263 are units; 123 under 2.5% | Equity barely builds on a geared purchase | Little or no debt, or the buyer is an owner-occupier |
Source: PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, published 16 October 2026) and PropTrack September-quarter 2026 suburb values; medians, group tests and “Fits when” guidance are our analysis. Counts cover the suburbs PropTrack published.
Investor takeaway: the doubling headlines cover less than half a per cent of the published rows. For most investors, the test is whether a median trajectory clears the cost of holding at a 4.85% cash rate.
Which suburbs are tipped to double by 2036?
Quick answer
20 rows in PropTrack's published table double by September 2036, all houses. Lower Chittering in regional WA leads (+138%), Elizabeth Vale heads 11 Adelaide rows, and Wulkuraka, Inala and Eagleby in Brisbane and Gagebrook and Herdsmans Cove in Hobart also double. realestate.com.au's Queensland story names further doublers, including Woodridge and Kingston, that aren't in the published table. Doubling in ten years takes 7.18% a year.
The 20 doublers in the published table
Important: a suburb median that doubles doesn't mean an existing house there will double. Medians move with the mix of homes sold: larger new homes replacing older ones, renovations and changes in which homes sell all lift a median without any like-for-like house gaining as much.
| Suburb (houses) | Market | Sep 2026 | Sep 2036 | 10-year rise (a year) | Last 3 months / 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Chittering | Regional WA | $1,365,000 | $3,248,000 | +138% (9.1%) | −1% / +15% |
| Elizabeth Vale | Adelaide | $682,000 | $1,550,000 | +127% (8.6%) | −4% / +3% |
| Elizabeth South | Adelaide | $613,000 | $1,391,000 | +127% (8.5%) | −4% / +8% |
| Elizabeth | Adelaide | $671,000 | $1,519,000 | +126% (8.5%) | −4% / +5% |
| Elizabeth Grove | Adelaide | $626,000 | $1,410,000 | +125% (8.5%) | −6% / +4% |
| Elizabeth Downs | Adelaide | $636,000 | $1,405,000 | +121% (8.2%) | −2% / +9% |
| Gagebrook | Hobart | $504,000 | $1,105,000 | +119% (8.2%) | +2% / +26% |
| Herdsmans Cove | Hobart | $512,000 | $1,119,000 | +119% (8.1%) | +1% / +27% |
| Elizabeth North | Adelaide | $591,000 | $1,288,000 | +118% (8.1%) | −1% / +11% |
| Chittering | Regional WA | $1,169,000 | $2,520,000 | +116% (8.0%) | n/a |
| Davoren Park | Adelaide | $610,000 | $1,307,000 | +114% (7.9%) | −2% / +12% |
| Smithfield Plains | Adelaide | $613,000 | $1,300,000 | +112% (7.8%) | −3% / +9% |
| Wulkuraka | Brisbane | $804,000 | $1,644,000 | +104% (7.4%) | −8% / +5% |
| Inala | Brisbane | $835,000 | $1,691,000 | +103% (7.3%) | −11% / +5% |
| Elizabeth East | Adelaide | $651,000 | $1,317,000 | +102% (7.3%) | −3% / +7% |
| Wattleup | Perth | $1,170,000 | $2,364,000 | +102% (7.3%) | −1% / +16% |
| Elizabeth Park | Adelaide | $638,000 | $1,286,000 | +102% (7.3%) | −3% / +7% |
| Christie Downs | Adelaide | $752,000 | $1,515,000 | +101% (7.3%) | −2% / +12% |
| Eagleby | Brisbane | $777,000 | $1,564,000 | +101% (7.2%) | −10% / +4% |
| South Nanango | Regional QLD | $699,000 | $1,399,000 | +100% (7.2%) | n/a |
Source: PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, published 16 October 2026); last 3 and 12 months: PropTrack September-quarter 2026 suburb values (whole-percent rounded; n/a = not in that table). Ordering and annual rates are our analysis of PropTrack's figures.
Eleven of the 20 are in Adelaide, ten of them in and around Elizabeth in the city's north; Christie Downs is in the south. All are houses, and 17 of the 20 were valued between $500,000 and $850,000 in September (PropTrack). No unit row doubles.
What doubling takes
Doubling in ten years needs 7.18% a year compounded. At the median house trajectory of 4.92%, our calculation takes a house at the median September value of $953,000 to about $1.54 million by 2036, a rise of about 62%. The median of the table's 2036 house values is higher, at $1.572 million (units $1.046 million), because the suburbs in the middle of the 2036 column aren't the ones in the middle today; we use the growth-rate path because it follows a single property.
Cotality's index has Adelaide dwelling values up 100.8% over the ten years to October 2026 and Brisbane up 98.2%, against 58.1% nationally (Cotality, 2 November 2026). A momentum-adjusted rate projects that decade forward, but it included a pandemic boom on a record-low cash rate, and the next one starts from much weaker affordability.
The doublers are already turning
Of the 18 published doublers in PropTrack's September-quarter suburb table, 16 fell over the three months to September, even though all 18 were higher than a year earlier. Inala fell 11% over the quarter, Eagleby 10%, Wulkuraka 8% and Elizabeth Grove 6%; the other Elizabeth suburbs fell between 1% and 4%. Only Gagebrook (+2%) and Herdsmans Cove (+1%) rose (PropTrack, September quarter 2026).
Elizabeth Vale, the top capital-city row, is projected to grow 6.92% a year to 2031 and then about 10.22% a year from 2031 to 2036 (our calculation from PropTrack's 16 October 2026 values). That second-half rate is well above the roughly 7.2% a year Cotality's Adelaide index averaged over the decade to October 2026.
Another 88 rows rise between 90% and 99% (our analysis of PropTrack's projections), mostly cheaper houses in Brisbane (39) and Adelaide (29) that are now falling over the quarter.
Pro tip: check where a suburb's trajectory comes from before you rely on it. If its last five years ran well above its 20-year average, the momentum adjustment is projecting a boom forward. Ask what the property returns at half the trajectory, and buy only if that version still works.
Past prices don't capture what will drive the next decade. Before relying on any trajectory, check what could break it: new supply and approvals nearby, employment and population growth, infrastructure that is funded rather than announced, local vacancy and rent growth, prices against local incomes, and whether the stock you're buying (established unit, older house, new build) behaves like the suburb median.
Which suburbs will stall, and which trail inflation?
Quick answer
313 rows in PropTrack's published table grow under 3% a year to 2036 (our “stale” test), and 263 of them are units. Melbourne (77), Sydney (67) and Canberra (35) hold the most, and 35 of Canberra's 41 unit rows are stale. 123 rows grow under 2.5% a year, the midpoint of the RBA's target, so they would fall in real terms if inflation averages that midpoint.
313 stale trajectories, mostly units
We call a trajectory stale when it grows under 3% a year, little more than inflation. Units make up 263 of the 313 stale rows, 17.8% of all unit rows against 1.6% of house rows, and houses outgrow units in every capital (our analysis of PropTrack's trajectories).
| Market | Rows | Median 10-yr trajectory | Last 12 months (median) | Double | Stale (<3%) | Under 2.5% | Falling now (≤ −5%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide houses | 280 | 6.10% | +6% | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brisbane houses | 293 | 6.01% | +4% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brisbane units | 146 | 5.67% | +12% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adelaide units | 151 | 5.21% | +7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Perth houses | 237 | 4.95% | +10% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney houses | 517 | 4.77% | −5% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 238 |
| Hobart houses | 44 | 4.63% | +10% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Melbourne houses | 335 | 4.34% | −3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 |
| Hobart units | 27 | 3.95% | +8% | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Canberra houses | 58 | 3.62% | −2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Sydney units | 310 | 3.59% | −2% | 0 | 66 | 16 | 54 |
| Perth units | 113 | 3.40% | +11% | 0 | 29 | 12 | 0 |
| Melbourne units | 212 | 3.20% | −1% | 0 | 77 | 21 | 42 |
| Canberra units | 41 | 2.58% | +1% | 0 | 35 | 17 | 3 |
Source: PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, published 16 October 2026) and PropTrack September-quarter 2026 suburb values; medians and test counts are our analysis. Capitals use ABS Greater Capital City boundaries. Counts cover the suburbs PropTrack published.
Median Trajectory to 2036 by Capital: Houses vs Units
Median annual growth rate across each capital's published rows. Houses outgrow units in every capital. The dashed lines mark 3% a year (our “stale” test) and 2.5% (the midpoint of the RBA's inflation target).
Source: PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026); medians are our analysis.
Canberra units and the inner-city towers
The slowest trajectories cluster in high-density precincts. Sydney Olympic Park units are the weakest row: $745,000 in September 2026 to $788,000 in 2036, or 0.56% a year. Wentworth Point units (Sydney) run at 0.93% a year, Docklands units (Melbourne) at 0.81% and Southbank units at 1.04% (PropTrack, 16 October 2026).
In Canberra, City units go from $557,000 to $570,000 by 2031, a gain of just 2.3% over the first five years, and to $621,000 by 2036, 11.5% over ten (PropTrack), and Cotality's index has Canberra dwelling values unchanged over five years (Cotality, 2 November 2026). Canberra units carry a 5.4% gross yield and Melbourne units 5.2%, against 3.5% for combined-capital houses (Cotality, October 2026). With little debt, the yield can do most of the work; for a geared buyer relying on growth, a stale trajectory leaves little room.
Below the RBA's target midpoint: 123 rows
123 rows grow under 2.5% a year: 89 units and 34 houses, led by Melbourne (21) and Sydney, regional Queensland and Canberra (17 each) (our analysis of PropTrack's projections). If inflation averages the 2.5% midpoint, the property buys less in 2036 than it does today; the 2.5% line is a benchmark, not an inflation forecast.
Headline monthly CPI rose 4.3% over the year to September (ABS, 28 October 2026), and the RBA's November forecasts have the trimmed mean back at 2.5% only by mid-2028. If inflation averaged 4.3%, 1,674 rows (35.8%) would trail it, including 952 of the 1,476 unit rows (our analysis).
Regional resource towns
Many stale houses are in mining and resource towns, where the 20-year record includes boom and bust. Moranbah houses in Queensland's Bowen Basin run at 1.11% a year, from $429,000 to $479,000 by 2036; the first five years add just 1.6% (PropTrack, 16 October 2026). South Hedland units in WA's Pilbara run at 1.04% a year, though PropTrack's September-quarter table has them up 40% over the year. With a history that volatile, the 20-year average can sit far from what happens next.
Important: a stale trajectory shows what the suburb's past implies if it repeats. Inner-city unit markets with heavy supply and one-industry towns have the weakest histories, so a buyer there needs a specific reason, such as yield or a known supply pause, to expect better.
Where could values go backwards? Our stress tests
Quick answer
PropTrack projects every row higher by 2031 and 2036; values go backwards only in our stress tests. If values fall a further 8% before PropTrack's five-year growth resumes, 120 rows (103 of them units) are still below their September 2026 value in 2031. 493 rows were already down 5% or more over the year to September, and 31 units that are both falling and stale form our negative-growth watch list.
Test 1: a further fall before the trajectory resumes
Our first test lets values fall, then grow by PropTrack's projected five-year gain from the lower level. A row is “still below” if that leaves it under its September 2026 value in 2031. The test doesn't predict whether, when or for how long values fall; it shows how much recovery a given sequence needs.
It measures value against the September 2026 base only. That isn't negative equity, which the RBA defines as a loan larger than the property's value (see our guide to negative equity on an investment property), nor a loss on sale, which depends on your purchase price and costs, nor a negative total return, which also counts holding costs.
CBA forecast on 3 November a national fall of about 14% from peak to trough (CommBank). On Cotality's index, that implies roughly 8% to 9% more from the September 2026 base (our arithmetic; CBA's index and peak dates may differ), a range our 8% and 10% tests cover. PropTrack says its first five years already allow for “the current downturn”, so applying a further fall and then PropTrack's full five-year gain is a deliberately harsh case; read the 8% row as a severe scenario.
| Further fall from Sep 2026 | 5-year gain needed to recover | Still below Sep 2026 value in 2031 | Of which units | Still below in 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | 5.26% | 19 | 16 | 0 |
| 8% | 8.70% | 120 | 103 | 2 |
| 10% | 11.11% | 237 | 194 | 8 |
| 15% | 17.65% | 1,176 | 709 | 20 |
Source: our stress test applied to PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, published 16 October 2026). Scenario only; PropTrack projects every row higher.
Our Stress Test: Rows Still Below Their September 2026 Value in 2031
Values fall by the amount shown, then grow by PropTrack's projected five-year gain. Units dominate every scenario. Scenario only; PropTrack projects every row higher.
Source: our stress test on PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026).
Units dominate every scenario because their five-year trajectories are thin. By 2036 almost every row recovers, because PropTrack's second-half growth is strong, so the exposure falls on a holder who must sell or refinance in 2031 in a stale suburb. After a further 5% fall, the median house trajectory would need 6.08% a year for nine years to reach its 2036 figure, and the median unit trajectory 4.91% (our calculation), both well above PropTrack's first-half pace.
Test 2: falling now
493 of the 3,918 rows that appear in PropTrack's September-quarter table were down 5% or more over the year to September (PropTrack): 292 in Sydney, 157 in Melbourne and 44 elsewhere, 380 of them houses (our analysis). The projection base already includes those falls, and PropTrack projects every one higher by 2031; where prices kept falling after September, today's value may be below that base.
The negative-growth watch list
Combining the falling-now test with the stale test gives 31 units: 15 in Sydney, 12 in Melbourne, 3 in Canberra and 1 in regional Victoria. On our tests, these are the suburbs most likely to sit below today's value for years. Four examples:
- Gardenvale units (Melbourne): down 22% over the year and 18% over the quarter; trajectory $337,000 to $415,000 by 2036, 2.10% a year.
- Winston Hills units (Sydney): down 18% over the year; trajectory 2.79% a year, $747,000 to $984,000.
- Watson units (Canberra): down 11% over the year and 13% over the quarter; trajectory 2.41% a year.
- Zetland units (Sydney): down 8% over the year; trajectory 2.58% a year from $967,000 to $1.247 million.
Figures: PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026) and PropTrack September-quarter 2026 suburb values; watch-list test is our analysis.
Small unit markets can swing on a handful of sales, so treat the list as a prompt for closer due diligence rather than a call that these suburbs will fall.
Momentum vs trajectory: which signal leads?
Fastest Trajectories, Most Quarterly Falls
The 3,918 matched rows in tenths by 10-year trajectory, slowest to fastest. Bars: share of rows that fell over the September quarter (left axis). Line: median change over the 12 months to September (right axis).
Source: PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 and September-quarter 2026 suburb values (realestate.com.au); grouping is our analysis.
Ranking the 3,918 matched rows into tenths by trajectory, the fastest tenth (6.1% to 9.1% a year) rose a median 7% over the year, yet 92% of its rows fell over the latest quarter, against 75% in the slowest tenth (our analysis of PropTrack's figures). Some stale rows are still rising. 144 of the 277 matched stale rows were higher over the year, 47 of them by 10% or more. For direction, PropTrack's monthly index, which we follow in our PropTrack Home Price Index tracker, is the better guide.
Our October Top 10 Suburbs screen selects for yield, vacancy and current demand, which the trajectories don't measure. Of its 20 entries, 12 appear in PropTrack's table, with trajectories from 2.7% to 6.0% a year; none doubles, and Mackay units (2.70%) are stale.
What growth does a geared investor need to break even?
Quick answer
On our year-one growth hurdle, an 80% interest-only investor at an illustrative 7.10% rate needs about 3.48% a year of growth on a typical capital-city house and 2.78% on a typical unit (Cotality's October combined-capital yields of 3.5% and 4.7%), before tax and transaction costs. Using Cotality's yield for each row's own market and type, 179 of PropTrack's 4,673 trajectories fall short, rising to 266 at a 7.35% stress rate. Sydney units are the largest group.
The break-even formula
At today's rates, rent rarely covers the interest on a geared purchase, so growth has to make up the difference. A simple year-one hurdle (our analysis):
Growth hurdle = (LVR × loan rate) + holding costs − gross yield, all as a share of the property's value.
It is the annual capital growth needed to offset the first year's pre-tax cash shortfall, not a full return calculation. It leaves out the return the deposit could earn elsewhere, stamp duty and purchase costs, selling costs and CGT, future changes in the loan rate, and changes in the property's own vacancy and maintenance.
For a typical capital-city house, an 80% interest-only loan at 7.10% costs 5.68% of the value a year; add holding costs of about 1.3% (rates, insurance, management, maintenance, vacancy) and subtract Cotality's 3.5% combined-capital house yield, and 3.48% remains. For a typical unit, 1.8% costs (including strata) and a 4.7% yield (Cotality) give 2.78%.
Where the rates come from. RBA Table F6 put new investor interest-only loans at 6.51% in August 2026 and existing ones at 6.57%; the September and November rises take them to about 7.01% and 7.07%, so 7.10% is our interest-only benchmark (at 7.01%, 163 rows fall short). The 6.90% lower bound is F6's new investor variable rate across all repayment types (6.41%) plus the same rises (6.91%), rounded down, as in our analysis of the November rate rise. As a market cross-check, Canstar put the average investor variable rate at about 6.97% (Canstar, 2 November).
Break-even at today's rates, market by market
Yields differ widely by market, so we also ran the test with Cotality's October gross yield for each row's own market and property type. At 7.10%, break-even runs from 3.88% for Sydney houses (3.1% yield) to 2.08% for Canberra units (5.4% yield) (our analysis on Cotality's yields).
| Loan rate (80% interest-only) | Typical capital-city house break-even | Typical capital-city unit break-even | Rows below on their own market's yield (houses / units) | All rows below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.90% (lower bound: new variable, all repayment types) | 3.32% | 2.62% | 44 / 87 | 131 (2.8%) |
| 7.10% (interest-only benchmark) | 3.48% | 2.78% | 59 / 120 | 179 (3.8%) |
| 7.35% (stress: 5.10% cash rate) | 3.68% | 2.98% | 100 / 166 | 266 (5.7%) |
Source: our analysis, using Cotality October 2026 gross yields by market and property type (released 2 November 2026; typical capital-city break-even uses the combined-capital 3.5% house and 4.7% unit yields), our illustrative holding costs and modelled investor rates, applied to PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, published 16 October 2026).
Median Trajectory vs Break-Even Growth
The median PropTrack trajectory against the annual growth needed to cover the first year's pre-tax shortfall on an 80% interest-only loan at three loan rates (Cotality combined-capital yields: 3.5% houses, 4.7% units). Before tax and transaction costs.
Source: our analysis using Cotality October 2026 yields and PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026).
At 7.10%, 63 of the 179 rows below break-even are Sydney units and 23 are Sydney houses, where yields are lowest. Stamp duty and selling costs raise the real break-even for anyone who sells within ten years.
Ten-year dollar examples
| Example (Sep 2026 value → 2036 on trajectory) | Yield / costs | Year-one shortfall | 10-year shortfall | Projected gain | Gain less shortfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Docklands unit, Melbourne (PropTrack: $582,000 → $631,000) | 5.2% / 1.8% | $13,270 | $103,729 | $49,000 | −$54,729 |
| Median unit ($703,000 → $1,028,000, our calculation) | 4.7% / 1.8% | $19,543 | $165,590 | $325,000 | +$159,410 |
| Median house ($953,000 → $1,541,000, our calculation) | 3.5% / 1.3% | $33,164 | $300,952 | $588,000 | +$287,048 |
| Elizabeth house, Adelaide (PropTrack: $671,000 → $1,519,000) | 3.5% / 1.3% | $23,351 | $211,898 | $848,000 | +$636,102 |
Source: Docklands and Elizabeth values from PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, published 16 October 2026); median rows are our calculation, growing PropTrack's median September 2026 value at the median trajectory (4.92% houses, 3.87% units); yields from Cotality, October 2026 (Melbourne units 5.2%, combined-capital units 4.7%, combined-capital and Adelaide houses 3.5%); cash-flow model is our analysis: 80% interest-only loan at 7.10%, rent and costs up 3% a year, before tax, stamp duty, selling costs and the return forgone on the deposit.
Projected Gain vs 10-Year Holding Shortfall
Gain on the trajectory to 2036 against the cumulative pre-tax cash shortfall on an 80% interest-only loan at 7.10%, in thousands of dollars. Only the Docklands unit's shortfall exceeds its projected gain.
Source: Docklands and Elizabeth values from PropTrack suburb projections to 2036 (realestate.com.au, published 16 October 2026); median rows are our calculation, growing PropTrack's median September 2026 value at the median trajectory (4.92% houses, 3.87% units); yields from Cotality, October 2026 (Melbourne units 5.2%, combined-capital units 4.7%, combined-capital and Adelaide houses 3.5%); cash-flow model is our analysis: 80% interest-only loan at 7.10%, rent and costs up 3% a year, before tax, stamp duty, selling costs and the return forgone on the deposit.
This is a simplified pre-tax, nominal comparison, not an internal rate of return or a return on equity: the interest-only balance stays unchanged for ten years, and the deposit's forgone return and transaction costs are left out.
In the Docklands line, the $465,600 loan costs $33,058 a year in interest against rent of $30,264 and costs of $10,476, a year-one gap of $13,270. Over ten years the gap totals about $103,700 against a projected gain of $49,000. In the Elizabeth line, even at half the trajectory (about 4.25% a year, a gain of roughly $347,000) the holder stays ahead of the $211,900 shortfall, though by much less.
How the 2027 tax changes affect hold-or-sell
The enacted Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026, as amended by the Tax Reform No. 2 Act 2026, changes both sides of these sums from 1 July 2027. In brief (the detail is in our grandfathering transition plan and CGT guide):
- Negative gearing (s 26-155). For established dwellings acquired after 7:30pm (ACT legal time) on 12 May 2026 (by contract date, not settlement), net rental losses from 1 July 2027 can't be offset against salary. They aren't lost: they offset residential rental income and capital gains and carry forward. Earlier purchases keep the existing treatment while held, and the Tax Reform No. 2 Act carries that through some transfers on death and court-ordered relationship breakdown (ss 26-156 to 26-158). New dwellings are exempt only if they meet the prescribed requirements, which a ministerial instrument (or the Tax Reform No. 3 Bill, if passed) will define. On the Docklands example, a grandfathered holder at a 39% marginal rate carries about $8,100 of the year-one gap after tax; a post-cut-off buyer with the same gap in any income year from 1 July 2027 carries the full $13,270 that year, with the loss carried forward.
- CGT (individuals: ss 112-155 and 112-160; trusts separately). Qualifying assets held through 30 June 2027 are treated as sold and reacquired at market value just before 1 July 2027. Nothing is taxed then: the gain to that date is deferred to the actual sale and keeps the 50% discount where it qualifies. Later growth gets a CPI-indexed cost base, and a 30% minimum tax can apply to some gains (Division 119). Eligible new dwellings are excluded from the deemed disposal (s 115-102).
Complying super funds are exempt from the loss quarantine and keep the one-third CGT discount on eligible gains, but since 10 August 2026 they can't enter new residential borrowing arrangements (existing ones are grandfathered), so a new SMSF residential purchase is generally unleveraged.
For a stale or watch-list property, selling a grandfathered holding gives up treatment that can't be regained, while holding a loss-maker costs cash every year. Run both paths through the Sell or Hold Planner and check your position with a tax adviser.
Pro tip: test every holding at half its PropTrack trajectory. If it still covers its after-tax shortfall over your holding period at half the projected growth, the trajectory is a bonus; if it only works at the full trajectory, you're relying on a repeat of the last decade.
How should investors use the 2036 projections?
Quick answer
Use a trajectory as the upside case and underwrite on half of it. Prefer purchases where rent covers most of the interest, negotiate below recent sales where prices are still falling, and for existing holdings weigh the after-tax cost of holding a stale property against giving up grandfathered treatment by selling.
Profile 1: First-time investor eyeing an Adelaide doubler (age 31, income $115,000)
Situation: $165,000 saved and looking at a $640,000 house in Adelaide's Elizabeth area because it tops the 2036 table.
Reasoning: PropTrack's trajectory needs about 8.5% a year, above the roughly 7.2% Cotality's Adelaide index averaged over the last decade, and area values fell over the September quarter (PropTrack). Half the trajectory clears our 3.48% house break-even by less than a point, and losses are quarantined from July 2027.
Strategy: underwrite at 4% growth, offer below recent comparable sales, and confirm the rent with a property manager before signing.
Profile 2: Grandfathered Melbourne unit holder (age 48, income $160,000)
Situation: inner-Melbourne unit bought in 2019, $460,000 interest-only loan at about 7.10%, trajectory under 1.5% a year.
Reasoning: like the Docklands example, the trajectory doesn't cover the holding gap. Losses stay deductible while held, and selling gives that up and may lock in a loss. The deemed disposal fixes the discount-eligible gain to 30 June 2027 either way.
Strategy: compare holding to 2030 with selling in 2027 in the Sell or Hold Planner, after tax, and plan any sale before an interest-only expiry forces it.
Profile 3: Post-cut-off buyer of an established Brisbane house (household income $210,000)
Situation: bought a $1.05 million house in Brisbane's south in July 2026 with an $840,000 interest-only loan; the suburb is a PropTrack near-double that fell about 9% over the September quarter (PropTrack).
Reasoning: losses are quarantined from 1 July 2027, Brisbane's index is 8.3% below its May peak (Cotality), and selling now would crystallise purchase costs and a likely loss.
Strategy: hold, keep a year of the shortfall in an offset account, and stress-test at 7.35%.
Profile 4: Canberra unit owner moving interstate (age 34, income $135,000)
Situation: renting out a Canberra unit with a $300,000 loan, trajectory about 2.4% a year, gross yield about 5%.
Reasoning: Canberra units are the stalest group (35 of 41 PropTrack rows on our stale test), but at low gearing the yield covers most of the cost. If it was bought before 7:30pm on 12 May 2026, its rental losses stay deductible under the existing rules, and the CGT main-residence absence rule (up to six years) may cover part of the gain; confirm both with a tax agent.
Strategy: keep it as a modestly geared income asset while the yield holds, and don't borrow against it for growth.
Profile 5: Retiree with a resource-town unit (age 67, income $55,000)
Situation: owns a mining-town unit outright for its yield; the trajectory is about 1% a year, but the unit rose sharply over the past year.
Reasoning: with no debt, yield is the return. Resource-town values swing with commodity cycles, so a strong year may be the best selling window for some time if the trajectory is right.
Strategy: get an independent valuation, compare the after-tax income with what the proceeds could earn elsewhere, and see a licensed adviser about pension and tax effects first.
A decision framework for each trajectory group
| Decision | Fits when |
|---|---|
| Hold a stale or watch-list property | Bought before 12 May 2026, shortfall is affordable after tax, no forced sale or refinance due before 2031 |
| Sell a stale or watch-list property | Shortfall strains cash flow, the loan fails a principal-and-interest test, or the proceeds can earn more elsewhere after selling costs and CGT |
| Buy in a doubler or near-double suburb | Price is below recent comparable sales, and the purchase works at half the trajectory |
| Buy a stale-trajectory unit | Little or no debt, the yield is the reason, and you're comfortable with flat real values |
| Wait | Finance isn't reconfirmed at the current rate, or the suburb is still falling and you have no deadline |
Source: our analysis; general guidance for discussion with a licensed adviser, not personal advice.
What would change this view
A faster recovery than CBA expects, or rate cuts in 2027, would put more suburbs back on track; a run of monthly rises before mid-2027 on our Cotality Home Value Index tracker is the signal. A deeper fall or a 5.10% cash rate would push more rows into our stress groups.
Practical next steps
- Look up your suburb's trajectory in the searchable table in realestate.com.au's national story (linked in Sources), then read it with the latest quarter; a falling quarter suggests the decline may have continued past PropTrack's base date.
- Calculate your own break-even with your actual rate, LVR, rent and costs.
- Halve the trajectory and check the purchase or holding still works.
- Map your tax position: which properties are grandfathered, and which are quarantined from July 2027.
- Model hold and sell side by side in the Sell or Hold Planner before listing or buying.
Frequently Asked Questions
In the 4,673 rows of PropTrack's published table (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026), 20 double by September 2036, all houses: Lower Chittering and Chittering (regional WA); Elizabeth Vale, Elizabeth South, Elizabeth, Elizabeth Grove, Elizabeth Downs, Elizabeth North, Davoren Park, Smithfield Plains, Elizabeth East, Elizabeth Park and Christie Downs (Adelaide); Gagebrook and Herdsmans Cove (Hobart); Wulkuraka, Inala and Eagleby (Brisbane); Wattleup (Perth); and South Nanango (regional Queensland). Separately, realestate.com.au's Queensland story names four more doublers (Woodridge, Kingston, One Mile and Leichhardt) that aren't in the published table because their names are shared with other suburbs. These are projections, not forecasts.
No. PropTrack's method extends each suburb's 20-year growth rate, adjusted for the last five years of momentum. PropTrack economist Angus Moore said the figures "illustrated historical trends, rather than predicting where prices would actually land" (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026). They don't model interest rates, supply or tax changes.
Doubling in ten years needs 7.18% a year. On our analysis of PropTrack's trajectories, the median house row grows 4.92% a year (about 62% by 2036) and the median unit row 3.87% (about 46%).
PropTrack projects no falls. In our stress test, a further 8% fall before growth resumes leaves 120 rows, mostly units, below their September 2026 value in 2031, and 123 PropTrack rows grow more slowly than 2.5% a year, the midpoint of the RBA's inflation target.
Not necessarily. Units make up 263 of the 313 stale trajectories (our analysis of PropTrack's projections), but often carry higher yields, about 5.2% in Melbourne and 5.4% in Canberra (Cotality, October 2026). With low debt the yield can do most of the work; a highly geared buyer has little margin.
On our year-one test, an 80% interest-only loan at 7.10% needs about 3.48% a year on a house with a 3.5% gross yield (Cotality's October combined-capital house figure) and 1.3% holding costs, or 2.78% on a unit with a 4.7% yield (Cotality, combined-capital units) and 1.8% costs, before tax and transaction costs.
The Bottom Line
PropTrack's published 2036 table puts the doubling headlines down to 20 houses out of 4,673 rows, with a few more among suburbs whose shared names leave them out. The typical row grows about 4% to 5% a year, and 313 trajectories, mostly units, barely grow. Nothing in the table falls; the “backwards” cases are our tests.
For investors, the numbers matter only against what a property costs to hold at a 4.85% cash rate. On our assumptions, a geared purchase in a typical capital city needs roughly 2.8% to 3.5% a year of growth to cover its holding gap, and on each market's own yield 179 trajectories don't reach it. For established dwellings acquired after 7:30pm (ACT legal time) on 12 May 2026, the 2027 changes stop that gap being offset against salary from 1 July 2027; the losses carry forward against future residential rental income and gains instead.
What to watch: Cotality's November results on 1 December, the RBA's 8 December decision and the December-quarter CPI in late January. For each holding, run hold and sell through the Sell or Hold Planner at half the trajectory.
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Methodology & assumptions
- Projections: PropTrack suburb projections to September 2031 and 2036 (realestate.com.au, 16 October 2026): 4,673 rows; suburbs under 100 dwellings, NT and shared suburb names not included. Annual rates are compounded from the published values.
- Momentum: PropTrack September-quarter 2026 suburb values (whole-percent rounded), matched on exact suburb name, state and property type (3,918 of 4,673 rows; the September values match the projection base). Unmatched rows stay in every projection count and are left out of the momentum tests only; nothing is imputed. Shared suburb names aren't in PropTrack's table, so no ambiguous matches arise.
- Calculations: annual rate = (2036 value ÷ September 2026 value)^(1/10) − 1, rounded to two decimals before any test or band (bands are half-open, so 3.00% counts as 3–4%); first- and second-half rates use the 2031 value the same way. Medians are taken across rows of each type, each half separately. Market = ABS Greater Capital City area or rest of state; each row takes Cotality's October gross yield for its market and property type. Tenths sort by rate, then suburb, state and type, so ties fall the same way on every build.
- Our tests: doubles = 2036 value at least twice the September 2026 value; stale = under 3.0% a year; below the target midpoint = under 2.5% a year; further-fall test = value falls 5%, 8%, 10% or 15%, then grows by PropTrack's projected gain (a row that exactly recovers is not counted); falling now = 12-month change of −5% or worse; watch list = falling now and stale. Every count was recomputed independently from the row-level file before publication.
- Growth hurdle (break-even): year-one (LVR × rate) + holding costs − gross yield; 80% interest-only; illustrative holding costs of 1.3% (houses) and 1.8% (units, including strata); Cotality October 2026 gross yields by market and type (typical capital city: combined capitals). Rates from RBA Table F6, August 2026, plus the September and November rises: 7.10% interest-only benchmark (new IO 6.51% → 7.01%; existing IO 6.57% → 7.07%), 6.90% lower bound (new investor variable, all repayment types, 6.41% → 6.91%, rounded down); 7.35% is a stress case at a 5.10% cash rate. Pre-tax; excludes the return forgone on the deposit, purchase and selling costs and CGT.
- Ten-year examples: rent and costs up 3% a year; loan unchanged; pre-tax. Price-fall arithmetic: CBA's forecast applied to Cotality's index as a rough guide. Profiles: hypothetical.
- Data as at: PropTrack projections 16 October 2026; PropTrack September-quarter suburb values; Cotality HVI October 2026 results (2 November); PropTrack HPI October 2026 (reported 2 November); ABS CPI September 2026 (28 October); RBA 3 November 2026; CBA 3 November 2026; legislation checked 12 November 2026.
Disclaimer: This article provides general information only and doesn't constitute financial, tax or credit advice. It doesn't take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Projections and scenarios are not guarantees of future prices. Consider seeking advice from a licensed financial adviser, tax agent or credit provider before acting.
Sources
PropTrack and realestate.com.au
- realestate.com.au, “Exclusive data reveals suburbs across Australia tipped to double in value by 2036”, 16 October 2026 (PropTrack trajectories; Angus Moore quote)
- realestate.com.au, “Melbourne suburbs tipped for six-figure house price gains”, 16 October 2026
- realestate.com.au, “Qld suburbs where house prices could double by 2036 - and the warning for buyers”, 16 October 2026
- realestate.com.au, “The SA suburbs where home values could soar the most by 2036”, 16 October 2026
- realestate.com.au, “Sydney housing slump broadens as values fall in 97pct of suburbs”, October 2026 (PropTrack September-quarter suburb values)
- PropTrack, Home Price Index, October 2026 results, released 2 November 2026 (national −0.3%; full report is form-gated) · supporting summary: propertyupdate.com.au, 2 November 2026
Cotality
- Cotality, “Housing downturn broadens as Brisbane and Perth lead the decline”, 2 November 2026 · Home Value Index, October 2026 results, released 2 November (PDF)
RBA, ABS and banks
- RBA, Monetary Policy Decision, 3 November 2026 · Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026
- RBA Statistical Table F6, Housing Lending Rates
- ABS, Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026
- CommBank, “Home prices tipped for record 14% downturn”, 3 November 2026
- Canstar, “Higher rates, bigger debt: average borrower faces $456 increase in 2026”, 2 November 2026
Legislation
- Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026: s 26-155 (negative gearing), ss 112-155 and 112-160 (deemed disposal and deferral), s 115-102 (new residential dwellings), Division 119 (30% minimum tax)
- Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 2) Act 2026, Schedule 4 (negative gearing amendments: ss 26-156 to 26-158, transfers on death and relationship breakdown), assented 26 August 2026
Test your holding at half its trajectory
The Sell or Hold Planner models each property under the enacted 2027 rules, so you can compare holding a stale or falling property with selling it, after tax.